ATTN: MTT Gurus - Am I misapplying this concept?

[ThrillFactor]

Empire 15K Guaranteed

480 start
down to 90ish
money at 50th

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: 7th - 50th place money means nothing to me. I play these low buy-in tourneys for a top 6 finish.

ANOTHER VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: Over the last 3 months, with the help of this forum, I have become much more aggressive in both my short-stack play (<10BB) and my 55/45 situations. Unfortunately, I haven't won a damn thing during that time and I'm beginning to wonder if I'm not misapplying those two concepts.

THE SITUATION:

Down to top 20% of the field.
My stack is about 7500
Average is about 5000
Blinds 150/300
I have KQo in the BB, folded to SB (average, unexceptional player) who pushes for about 1400 - 1100 for me to call.
I've got to believe his range of hands here is huge. If I win, I pad my stack even more. If I lose, it doesn't hurt that much. It takes my about 5 seconds to call. He shows J7s, so the read was good, but he wins the hand.

Cards happen, but the question here is should I have been calling here in the first place? Nice healthy stack with a good, but not great, chance to improve it. Call or wait till I can be the aggressor?


AN ORBIT LATER:

I have 6000-6200 chips, average is about 5500 at this point.
Blinds still 150/300
I make it 900 to go from MP with pocket 9s. Player on my immediate left pushes for 3K - folded to me, 2100 to call.
I've been sitting with this guy for 2 hours, and though we can argue the merit of my read if you guys want, I've got him squarely on TT-66, AK-AJ, or KQs. I'm leaning heavily towards 2 overs, so I'm 55/45 to win.

3 months ago I would have laid this down without a second thought and taken my slightly below average stack and gone back to work (hell, 3 months ago I would have limped with the 99 to begin with). Now, I realize that I'm getting greater that 2 to 1 on my call and I'm a small favorite to boot. So I grit my teeth, call even though I've been losing every time I put myself in these situations, see his AKo turned up (read was good), watch the K hit the flop, and am left with a 1/2 average stack.

Cards happen, I know. But the question is, am I applying these concepts at the right times? At the two moments in question, given my good position relative the the rest of the field, am I risking too much with too small a chance of winning? Should I be waiting for the 60/40 hands with 1 - 1.5x the average stack? Should the 55/45s be saved for when I'm short-stacked or have >2x the average?

Am I picking the right spots to make the close gambles?

[Bernas]

The first one is an autocall.

The second one, if that is your read then it is a definite call. You are ahead in all but one of those cases.

[Roman]

dont let results bring you down, both plays are standard.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
dont let results bring you down, both plays are standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

But are they standard in the sense that if I lose, I'm incrimentally (sp.) losing my ability to utilize the big-stack advantage to accumulate chips?

MLG?

[MLG]

They are both good plays. The first one is an insanely easy call, the second one might be a little tougher, but you made what I believe to be an excellent read and call, it just didnt work out for you.

[schwza]

there's no reason to post the results. no one cares what the board cards were.

both are standard.

[pocketjacks]

Don't get frustrated at all. I had pocket queens last night in the big blind and everyone folded to the small blind who tried to steal my blind. He was at 800 in chips and I was at 2000, He raised me 300 and I took the option and put him all-in. He had J,6 suited and flopped two pair. Looking back at it, it crippled me instead of taking me to almost 1st in chips with 5 4 players left. I cannot even think about that as being the wrong play. Keep reading em well and playing it right, and from that point on the cards will do what they do. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[ThrillFactor]

I realize that I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but I just want to make sure that we're really thinking the situation thru.

1) If I fold I'm left with an essentially average stack. I like to think that I'm an above average player - let's go to work.

2) If I call and win I have a twice average stack and I'm a force to be reconned with. And BTW, I just so happen to be favorite to win the hand.

BUT

3) If I call and lose (which, also BTW, is highly likely) I drop to 1/2 average - 10BB - and I'm going to have to get lucky.



I'm just wondering if sometimes we don't get too caught up in who's the favorite and pot odds and EV and Sklanski dollars and the mathematically correct plays, to stop and consider what happens to our chances to do well if we lose a particular hands - which we will just slightly less than 1/2 the time.

In a ring game with the long term in our favor, the answer is clear cut and there is no debate as long as bank roll considerations are not an issue (which they shouldn't be). In a tourney, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe some small edges should be passed up IF (and only IF) a loss will do significant damage to your stack (insert your own level of significance - 25%, 40%, 50%...)



EDIT: I'm now discussing the second hand only

[sdplayerb]

i believe the first one is an extremely easy call.

the second one, i really don't agree with those range of hands. but if you assume you are right, then you have to call. he had ak, so you also had to be happy to call there.
but, i do think it can be laid down since it really puts you in a precarious position if you lose. the range of hands i'd put him would make the fold pretty plausible.

50/50s are fine when getting 2-1, you just can't be sure you are 50/50.
I also don't like ones that if i lose that I end up in bad shape.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
... i do think it can be laid down since it really puts you in a precarious position if you lose...

I also don't like ones that if i lose that I end up in bad shape.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is the specific issue I'd like to discuss more.

Care to elaborate?