Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.

CieloAzor · #1 12-20-2005, 08:10 PM

He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?

If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range.

gobboboy · #2 12-20-2005, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[ QUOTE ]
Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?

[/ QUOTE ]
Jesus tapdancing christ, yes.

[ QUOTE ]
If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every decision can take a while if you think about it too hard. I think it was sirio who said "Poker is too difficult a game to screw up by getting the easy decisions wrong." You have an overpair and the 2nd nut flush draw. NO ONE IN THE WORLD pushes a flush on this board. The best he can possibly have is J9, and I sincerely doubt he has it.

You're kidding yourself if you think this is a hard decision. This is like saying "I raised with KK and someone pushed behind me!!! My edge isn't THAT big. I'll fold and wait for a better spot."

adanthar · #3 12-20-2005, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?

If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're 53% vs. the absolute best hand he could possibly have, top 2, and 52% vs. AcQx. He has something better than that around 1% of the time, something worse than that...a whole lot of the time, and the nuts approximately never.

This is not even a small edge, it's >10%.

CieloAzor · #4 12-20-2005, 08:54 PM

Hmm, I tend to think he's protecting a set of 8s or the straight much more than 1% of the time. I was putting villain pretty squarely on 2 pair or better here, although the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + a pair is admittedly possible. The sets have me beat much worse than what I've got over the 2-pair and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + pair hands.

I should've ran some calculations through before I posted but I didn't. Seeing that I'm favored over top two is certainly giving me pause here. Pushing has got to be +cEV I think.

On the other hand, I'll win this small tourney about 3x the average by playing small-ball early and pushing people around late. They've got a similar small-field $100+10 tourney on weekends and I've won straight up 6/14 times this year with fields of 24, 22, and 15 amongst my wins. It's not a given that I should race 2-pair here.

adanthar · #5 12-20-2005, 09:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, I'll win this small tourney about 3x the average by playing small-ball early and pushing people around late. They've got a similar small-field $100+10 tourney on weekends and I've won straight up 6/14 times this year with fields of 24, 22, and 15 amongst my wins. It's not a given that I should race 2-pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What site is this? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

TomHimself · #6 12-20-2005, 09:07 PM

I dont think a fold here is that bad considering there are only 9 out of 11 people left and you have a deep stack with good strucutre. If this were larger tourney I would commit my chips to accumulate for later stages. but since this is basically a deepstacks SNG, I dont think accumulating is as important as it is for a MTT. I dont think I would fold this but does my logic make sense?