shuffle tracking

[shiburu]

Any ideas out there about tracking a poker dealer's shuffle?

From what I've observed, most dealers shuffle the same way every time: riffle, riffle, strip (4 sections), riffle, cut.

Since I can always see the bottom card or two of the deck when the dealer scoops up the cards, I wondered where that card was most likely to be after the shuffle. Assuming perfect riffles, stipping, and cut, the card would be one of the bottom eight cards of the deck, taking it out of play. However, a shallow cut might put it at the top and probably in someone's hand, again, out of play.

Knowing this, I'm just wondering if anyone knows enough about shuffle tracking to determine the probability of perfect riffles and stipping, and if it is significant enough to alter my strategy. e.g., If my draw includes the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and I saw it at the bottom of the deck, pre-shuffle, should I remove that as an out, count it as half, three-quarters? Any thoughts? Thanks.