Correlation Parlays

[Medra]

Hi,

Would anyone explain what a correlation parlay is or tell me where I can find more information about it?

short and sweet, football parlays in which when one side covers the spread, the total is likely to go a certain way under or over. A commonly known NFL correlated parlay is Favorite of 10 or more/Total over or Dog of 10 or more/Total under. Most sharp books ban these.

[tech]

A correlated parlay is when you parlay two events in which one of them is more likely to happen if the other one also happens.

For example, suppose a sportsbook offered bets on the weather on a given day where you could bet sunny/cloudy, rain/no rain, etc. A correlated parlay would be to parlay cloudy and rainy, since they are highly likely to happen at the same time.

Now think about all the times that can happen in sports. One common one is that in MLB, an under is more likely if the home team wins and an over is more likely if the road team wins.

like for example if you saw Charlie Sheen walking down the street 10 years ago there's a high probability a raging late teen sl*t was in his company within the previous 12 hours.

or use tech's example. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Medra]

LOL

[Medra]

Thanks, that's interesting. I am going to check out what books allow it.

[BoxLiquid]

Good examples. Helped me out.

[LotsOfOuts69]

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Now think about all the times that can happen in sports. One common one is that in MLB, an under is more likely if the home team wins and an over is more likely if the road team wins.

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Wow, is that just because of the one at-bat the home team doesnt get if it wins? Or is there something else I'm missing?

doesn't seem that huge an advantage over the long run, I figure books would take care of this edge when making the line.

[ohnonotthat]

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doesn't seem that huge an advantage over the long run, I figure books would take care of this edge when making the line.

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It doesn't have to be a huge edge.

Books stay in business off an edge that rarely exceedes 2-3% of total volume.

If you have 100k (or 100 DOLLARS for that matter) to invest would you prefer to invest it at 5-10% per year - stocks, bonds, etc. - or 5-10% per MONTH - playing edges that are [sic] not HUGE ? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Very true. It's a common misconception that parlays are a "sucker bet". They certainly can be. But for sharp bettors, parlays often offer exceptional value - better than you can find on straight plays. Proving the point is that Pinnacle - by far the the best book out there for value seekers - ban most correlated parlays. But it's amazing how many books do allow them. Word to the wise about sports betting in general - Check what Pinny are offering before making any bet. Ever. Also, look to Piiny to see what buying extra points are worth. Lots of value to be found buying the extra points, but only in certain situations.... Much more likely to be bad value than good to buy the 1/2 point or full point, but not always. Sometimes it is extraordinarly GOOD value to do it. Checking Pinny's is a good way to find the value...