TPFK vs all-in check-raise

#1 08-28-2005, 06:48 AM

I've been thinking about this hand from earlier today. How should I have played it differently?

62 players remain out of 700. Blinds are 600/1200, antes 75. Hero has 20300 in chips (M is 8, orange zone). UTG+1 is in the top 10 with 35670 and just arrived at the table. #1 and #3 chip leaders are also at the table (BB with 47975, Button with 41270).

Paradise Poker (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB folds, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 3600, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 raises all-in 34393, Hero calls all in 15427.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot:

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
Hero has Kd Jd (one pair, kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins . 

Would you have called his check-raise? If I had more chips I would've probably folded, but folding would've left me with only 15000 (M of 6, soon to be 4 with the blinds about to go). I probably should've raised preflop to better define where I stood, but if UTG+1 just called I'd be in the same situation. If he raised preflop I would've had a tough decision.

Side note, UTG+1 from this hand was one card away from winning the whole tournament, and ended up finishing second.

-david

zoobird · #2 08-28-2005, 07:09 AM

My initial thought was that I definitely wouldn't have called this, because I think if he's bluffing he'd be much more likely to raise than check-raise, unless he knows that you're VERY aggressive. Now that I went through what he might have, I'm not so sure. Seems like possibilities could include 88, 99, AA, AK, KQ, KJ, KT, 98, JT, or 76. Given the pot odds, this might be worth it, although probably still not.

#3 08-28-2005, 08:26 AM

The more I think about it, the more I think this is a clear fold, even with the 2-1 pot odds and inflection point issue. What hands could he have to justify the all-in check raise? I think only AA, 99, 88, AK, 98. Maybe JT, but that seems like a big risk against someone who has bet into 3 opponents. I discounted KK because there was only 1 combination left with 2 Ks out. I think KQ is too weak of a hand to pull this move off. Against those I'm essentially drawing dead to trips, 20% vs AA, 16% vs AK or KQ, 28% vs 89. Only against a bluff or JT (68%) am I getting the right odds to call.

Now I just need a way to figure all of this out in the 60 second time limit, not after the tourney is over!

-d

nightlyraver · #4 08-28-2005, 10:39 AM

I'm definately not calling this. No matter what you stack size is (unless you have an M less than 3) you simply should not call bets when you know you are beaten, IMHO. This is basically the equivalence of just giving up. I wouldn't care that my stack is reduced to an M of 6. First, the only hand you can beat is a bluff, which is very unlikely given the situation. It's pretty obvious that Hero has a King and that he will call. Villian gains nothing by pushing with a hand like JT or A9 since he knows you have top pair and he knows you will call. Therefore, I'm putting him on top pair with a better kicker, like KQ, or a better hand. In any case, we are drawing to 5 or fewer outs. When you know you are beat, your stack size shouldn't fit into the analysis. Second, the stacks here are all pretty short - even for the chip leaders! With an M of 6, you could make a decent comeback attempt. Doubling up gives you an M of 12 and since most cannot easily take a big hit to their stacks, you can probably steal a couple pots preflop.

zambonidrivr · #5 08-28-2005, 01:06 PM

Don't mean to be a dick, but you should not even be in this hand. Looks like you read HOH vol 2. Did you not read 1?

#6 08-28-2005, 05:36 PM

Yeah, I agree (now). It sucks playing a few hours of good, solid, patient poker to get to this point and then going out with a stupid move like this. It was one of those situations where it was obvious after the fact, but sitting there, in the hand, with the time bank running down I second-guessed myself.

Time to reread HOH vol 1...