What are the odds?

[Spartacus]

I was just 4 tabling on Stars to work on an old bonus and got 2 straight flushes in a row on the same table. What are the odds? Is it easier to hit Party's bad beat jackpot?

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Game #1042928146: Hold'em Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/01/05
- 22:23:01 (ET)
Table 'T #10226405' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Stienstang ($15.50 in chips)
Seat 2: xaZnxbOyx ($17.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Showcase1 ($7.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Spartacuss ($23.25 in chips)
Seat 6: AngelOfDebt ($16 in chips)
Spartacuss: posts small blind $0.25
AngelOfDebt: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Spartacuss [6h 6c]
Stienstang: folds
xaZnxbOyx: folds
Showcase1: calls $0.50
Spartacuss: raises $0.50 to $1
AngelOfDebt: calls $0.50
mr4x4_78 joins the table at seat #5
Showcase1: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [5c 8c 7c]
Spartacuss: bets $0.50
AngelOfDebt: calls $0.50
Showcase1: calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [5c 8c 7c] [9c]
Spartacuss: checks
AngelOfDebt: checks
Showcase1: checks
*** RIVER *** [5c 8c 7c 9c] [Jd]
Spartacuss: bets $1
AngelOfDebt: folds
Showcase1: folds
Spartacuss collected $4.50 from pot
Spartacuss: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4.50 | Rake $0
Board [5c 8c 7c 9c Jd]
Seat 1: Stienstang folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: xaZnxbOyx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Showcase1 (button) folded on the River
Seat 4: Spartacuss (small blind) collected ($4.50)
Seat 6: AngelOfDebt (big blind) folded on the River


[/ QUOTE ]

Followed by:

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Game #1042930865: Hold'em Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/01/05
- 22:23:36 (ET)
Table 'T #10226405' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Stienstang ($15.50 in chips)
Seat 2: xaZnxbOyx ($17.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Showcase1 ($5.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Spartacuss ($26.25 in chips)
Seat 6: AngelOfDebt ($14.50 in chips)
mr4x4_78 will be allowed to play after the button
AngelOfDebt: posts small blind $0.25
Stienstang: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Spartacuss [Jh Th]
xaZnxbOyx: calls $0.50
Showcase1: folds
Spartacuss: raises $0.50 to $1
AngelOfDebt: folds
Stienstang: folds
xaZnxbOyx: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [9h Qh 2c]
xaZnxbOyx: checks
Spartacuss: bets $0.50
xaZnxbOyx: calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [9h Qh 2c] [7d]
xaZnxbOyx: checks
Spartacuss: bets $1
xaZnxbOyx: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [9h Qh 2c 7d] [8h]
xaZnxbOyx: checks
Spartacuss: bets $1
xaZnxbOyx: raises $1 to $2
Spartacuss: raises $1 to $3
xaZnxbOyx: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Spartacuss: shows [Jh Th] (a straight flush, Eight to Queen)
xaZnxbOyx: mucks hand
Spartacuss collected $11.25 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $11.75 | Rake $0.50
Board [9h Qh 2c 7d 8h]
Seat 1: Stienstang (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: xaZnxbOyx mucked [Tc Qc]
Seat 3: Showcase1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Spartacuss (button) showed [Jh Th] and won ($11.25) with a
straight flush, Eight to Queen
Seat 6: AngelOfDebt (small blind) folded before Flop


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this won't happen to me again soon.

[Asnbabe]

shoulda used that luck while playing 15/30. . .but nice hands [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[itsmarty]

The odds of a straight flush coming on the hand after a straight flush hits are the same as the odds for the first one.

Martin

[Asnbabe]

its the same odds of getting a straight flush...the odds of hitting the first are the same as the second...but hitting them back to back is a different stat because now you're talking about all the combinations of hand while getting a different combination of hands and still making a straight flush but with different cards...you multiply the odds together or something...trust me...they're different odds

[PokerGoblin]

[ QUOTE ]

The odds of a straight flush coming on the hand after a straight flush hits are the same as the odds for the first one.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was a very insightful post. I am so happy to use the same forum as someone as bright and who makes such helpful, worthwhile contributions to our discussions as you do.

The answer to your question, what are the odds of it occuring on TWO consecutive hands is, according to http://www.neo-tech.com/poker/part1b.html :

1/70,000 * 1/70,000 = 1/4,900,000,000

On a side note, this does belong in the Probability forum, I do believe.

PG

[Asnbabe]

ah thanks...I didn't know the numbers [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] fast google...I should have thought about that

[PokerGoblin]

NP it was an easy one.

PG

[itsmarty]

The reason I posted is because so many people don't understand the past doesn't affect future events. The fact that you know this wouldn't have changed my post, and shouldn't have prompted yours.

Martin

[PokerGoblin]

Martin, do you really think that there are people on here that think that the outcome from a previous hand affects future hands? Not in the Zoo man. All he asked was a straightforward question, what are the odds of the same outcome two hands in a row? It didn't warrant any unnecessary, derogatory comments.

PG

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
Martin, do you really think that there are people on here that think that the outcome from a previous hand affects future hands? Not in the Zoo man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly your three months at 2+2 haven't been spent reading.

Martin