Odds to flop a draw? - Page 2

Net Warrior · #11 06-19-2003, 07:39 PM

OK, so that brings us up to 4.05 to 1. Wow, I had no idea the odds were that good.

So, if we add in 2.23% for completed straight or better hands flopped, that's a whopping 3.5 to 1.

This info plus the ideas in the link listed below changes the way I've been treating these hands.

Thanks guys.

Here is an interesting link I found on these boards related to "jamming" draws on the flop.

http://web.archive.org/web/200103012...i/jamming.html

BruceZ · #12 06-20-2003, 02:28 PM

After looking at this some more, I realized that my original calculation did in fact include double belly busters. I excluded double belly busters when I computed the clean flush draws, but they were all added back at the end when I compute the straight draws. I am attempting to compute the same thing that Copernicus is attempting to compute. On the other hand, there are several problems with the Copernicus calculation (for straight draws, not the solar system). [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

1. Some of the 37 cards will produce pairs, and these are being counted more than once. The pairs should be separated out.

2. Some of the 37 cards will produce straights which we don't want to count.

3. We cannot just multiply by 3 for 3 2-card combinations since some of these 3 will include the same flops.

4. For the case where the straight card is paired, we should multiply by 6 instead of 3 since 2*3 does not take into account order.

I have not yet fixed the Copernicus calculation so it gives the same answer as my method. I don't know why the software agrees with it. Does this software enumerate all possible flops, or is it just a simulation? I know that the clean flush draw part of my calculation is correct because it was verified by an independent method. This is the hard part, the rest is fairly straightforward. For now I stand by my original calculation of 19.3% including double belly busters.

Collin O'Mahon · #13 09-03-2003, 02:00 AM

why aren't you also including the probability of flopping a gutshot straight too (you only seem to be looking at either (a) open-ended straights, or (b) double gutshots).

For example, in case of 87s hole cards, a flop of 54x or JTx (x excludes cards allowing for a double-gutshot draw).

what am i missing here?

Bozeman · #14 09-03-2003, 02:16 AM

Why isn't it (relatively) easy to compute the probability of str8 draw, add the prob. of flush draw, and subtract the prob. of str8 flush draw? Because of made str8's and flushes?

Craig

BruceZ · #15 09-03-2003, 02:38 AM

You ask me this *now*, months later when I'm drunk off my ass? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

It was just harder. As I remember, it had to do with the possibility of the board pairing. I didn't have time to fix Copernicus' stuff, but I should, because if I get the same answer then it's really solid. I'm pretty sure my stuff is right because the hard part was verified independently from a fixed version of my nemesis' calculation (not Copernicus, the other C), and the straights were derived almost trivially from that.

"I'm pretty sure it's right....Maybe I don't want to spend the rest of my life explaining sh*t to people like you so you can f*ck it up. Do you have any idea how easy this is for me? I mean this is a f*ckin' joke!"

Professor: (kneeling over charred remains of proof): "You're right. I can't do this proof. I'm sorry I ever met you. Because then I wouldn't have to face every day knowing that someone like you is out there...and I wouldn't have to watch you throw it all away."

- Goodwill Hunting, I can't watch this without choking on tears.

BruceZ · #16 09-03-2003, 02:41 AM

Hi Collin,

I wasn't interested in guthshots for this particular post. Someone asked about the probability of flopping 4-flushes and outside straight draws. For the discussion we are currently engaged in, I'm sweeping the gutshots under the rug and out the door because you don't play them nearly as often.

-Bruce

Collin O'Mahon · #17 09-03-2003, 03:08 AM

Thanks for the quick reply.

The original poster asked, "Can someone help me figure out the chances of flopping a draw, either a 4-str8 or a 4-flush, when you have a meduim suited connected hands like 87s?"

A flopped single-gutshot straight is a 4-straight draw, right? So technically perhaps his question encompassed single gutshots too.

After the flop, you are a 5.07 to 1 dog for making the single gutshot. As long as there are no flush possibilities so far, and the game is loose, the pot odds may be there to pursue this...

BruceZ · #18 09-03-2003, 03:27 AM

A flopped single-gutshot straight is a 4-straight draw, right? So technically perhaps his question encompassed single gutshots too.

No, 4-straight means outside straight draw. It's a little confusing, it means you already have 4 cards to the straight, not 4 outs. I'm also not considering 1-card straights.

After the flop, you are a 5.07 to 1 dog for making the single gutshot. As long as there are no flush possibilities so far, and the game is loose, the pot odds may be there to pursue this...

You have to have implied odds (from other bettors after you make your hand) of 11-1 to make it it 1 card. 5-1 probably isn't enough, maybe 8-1.

Collin O'Mahon · #19 09-03-2003, 01:19 PM

I thought that a 4-straight meant that of any 5-card completed straight hand, you have 4 cards already. regardless of the number of outs.

So, with a single gutshot straight, you already have 4 of the necessary 5 cards. With a double-gutshot, you also have 4 of the necessary 5 cards, but of course have more outs.

If you include double-gutshots, I'm still unsure as to why you don't include single-gutshots.

BruceZ · #20 09-03-2003, 03:11 PM

I thought that a 4-straight meant that of any 5-card completed straight hand, you have 4 cards already. regardless of the number of outs.

I guess "outside straight" would be less confusing. You're right, even gutshots mean you have 4 cards.

If you include double-gutshots, I'm still unsure as to why you don't include single-gutshots.

Double-gutshots have the same number of outs as outside straight draws. I was only interested in the 8 out straight draws here, and the 9 out flush draws. That's what someone asked about, how often you flop each of these draws. Gutshots are played much less often because the pot is often not big enough unless you have good implied odds. I also wasn't interested in straight draws where you only have one of the cards in your hand. Those aren't very strong draws, they are often dominated or counterfeited.