The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

[SlyGuy]

I would definately call here. How many hands are there that limp in EP with a 2 in it. You have the 3rd best kicker and top pair. I think at 2/4 someone who was going to call anyways might try this play on occasion.

[belloc]

I haven't read the other responses, but I'm interested in what we're putting EP on here. On the flop, he's betting into the raiser on his left, presumably hoping he'll raise and thin the field. Maybe that's assuming too much thought from this opponent.

I just can't see any hand with a 2 in it that is betting the flop into the raiser. He more likely has a weak K and is bluffing at the board pair on the end. MP is having trouble getting away from his QQ. Is that close?

That's all hindsight analysis, and I'm not sure I have the presence of mind to think like that during the play of the hand. More likely, I wince, make the crying call, and am surprised when I'm good here more often than I think.

EDIT: I forgot this was about a protected pot, and I didn't address it. I said EP was *bluffing*, though I guess that's less likely with this multi way pot on the end. But it's certainly not beyond the realm of possibilities in a 2/4 game. I just can't put him on a hand here, and the weak K is still my best guess.

[Nick C]

I would call.

I'm thinking MP probably has a pocket underpair like QQ.

I don't know what EP has. A turned set of 7's? K2s? AK? Those are all possibilities. But I think he'll have a hand like 55 or even 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] often enough. A worse king is also possible.

I would be more optimistic if the pot were heads-up, though.

[Nick C]

I would call this at 5/10 also, actually, and let EP revel in his crafty slowplay or river suckout. And I still suspect my hand would be good often enough. The river raise is suspicious, and I think EP will be making it out of desperation on occasion.

[W. Deranged]

Seems like a lot of you are thinking a call here.

Some things to consider:

1. I have shown quite a bit of strength. I check-raised a large field and bet both the turn and the river. There is little reason to believe I will lay down my hand.

2. The MP player is very unlikely to have a hand that is beating mine. He seems likely to have a hand that is either hopelessly chasing (AQ or something like that) or a made hand that he is incapable of folding (QQ or JJ). He will often have a hand with showdown value and doesn't seem to like folding much.

3. Because of #2, we have to think that the EP guy is going to be at least a little wary of bluffing into this pot. Even donkies have a sense that it's harder to bluff two people than one, and can have enough of a sense of hand-reading to put at least one of us on a decent hand the vast majority of the time.



So what interested me about the hand is not the fact that MP's overcall makes it less likely that we have the best hand. I think we're beating MP well of 90% of the time. My question is how much less likely is EP to be raising a worse hand because MP is in the pot?


Just a small addition. I'm interested in continued discussion.

Also, I'm interested again how this stuff changes at the different limits.

[W. Deranged]

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Protected pot or not, this is a super easy river call at 2/4

You will cry when donkey turns over K9 and the PFR has JJ

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No I wouldn't. I'd reanalyze the hand to see what, if any, went wrong.

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Jason,

Do you fold this at 2/4? How about 5/10 and 10/20?

[Nick C]

You're right that MP may be chasing hopelessly. If so, it's pretty clear he didn't catch on the river.

I guess if EP is thinking about it this way, he may figure the pot isn't very protected at all but only appears to be.

Plus, if EP has a weak king, I don't think he has to worry about MP's hand. He just has to hope his raise drives you out.

But EP's thinking doesn't have to be this complex -- especially at 2/4. I think he could be making a desperation raise with pocket 3's or a busted flush draw.

[belloc]

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Also, I'm interested again how this stuff changes at the different limits.

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I think this changes everything. Or at least, the read on EP changes the thought process (and if we're new to the table, the limit we're playing at is often the best information we've got against unknowns).

Against better players, I'm really trying hard to put EP on a hand that will bet into that frop with the PFR on his left. Against a bad or merely straightforward player, it's likely that the weird flop bet, plus the turn call, plus the raise on the river deuce into two players, simply doesn't add up to some coherent play.

[WillMagic]

EP's line is so bizarre that I'm calling. First he bets with the preflop raiser on his immediate left...signifying a vulnerable hand. And then he raises the 2 on the river? I'm having a lot of trouble reading his hand here...and I think he turns over KT/K9/busted flush draw enough to call. If he played a set this way good for him.

Will

[Piiop]

So, the real debate here is in what situation would you fold here? If you're thinking fold in this hand, you're giving your opponents (especially after you told us they're unknown and possibly bad) way too much credit.

If I had a very good read on the player, I'd be able to fold at .5/1, but I wouldn't fold it against an unknown at 15/30. There are just too many weird/aggro/bad players online. At 20/40 and higher, I can consider folding.