This is an ace every single time

[TwoNiner]

It's blind vs blind and you checked the turn. You gotta call it getting 6-1. He could easily be on a medium pair or maybe queen but it's probably as likely he has nothing. Hell, seemingly regular players refuse to fold on the flop after raising in these heads up blind wars just to show they can't be pushed around.

[NLSoldier]

i see your logic but i dont think it matters, im never folding this.

[Lmn55d]

I agree it's a call. Out of curiosity, how often do you think I am good? I would say 1 in 4.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree it's a call. Out of curiosity, how often do you think I am good? I would say 1 in 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you come up with this number? Was it an intuitive guess, or did you do some math? If you want to, you can instead of guessing the final result, guess how he might play certain hands with a certain percentage, and than figure out from those hypothesis how often you are good. I think this is a fairly simple way to get a more accurate guestimate.

[Lmn55d]

a guess, I'm too lazy and don't care enough to do any sort of math. Also when you do math for this sort of stuff it all depends on your assumptions so it's not that accurate.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
a guess, I'm too lazy and don't care enough to do any sort of math

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats too bad. You would probably learn something and increase your hourly income.


[ QUOTE ]
Also when you do math for this sort of stuff it all depends on your assumptions so it's not that accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it is only as accurate as your assumptions. That said it, it is far more accurate than if you just make a guess of how good you are without thinking about hand ranges and probability of those hand ranges.

[Lmn55d]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats too bad. You would probably learn something and increase your hourly income.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've probably done this sort of math stuff hundreds of times. Thanks for the advice on increasing my hourly income though.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thats too bad. You would probably learn something and increase your hourly income.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've probably done this sort of math stuff hundreds of times. Thanks for the advice on increasing my hourly income though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for acting snide. I just that doing minor math here is better than throwing out some seamingly random number such as 4:1, or guessing whether we are getting the necessary 6:1. If you have done the math so many times, it shouldn't be that much of a hassle to do it one more time.

I don't mean to sound harsh, if I am, but I just think that easy math is fairly skipped over, even when it doesn't take all that much time, but can help immensely.

[Lmn55d]

It's ok. You say the math is easy and it is. The problem is all I have is his pokertracker stats and this is a sb vs. hu situation. His range his huge and I really have no idea how he'd play a lot of hands. My assumptions would be too contrived to be useful IMO. Saying "yea, I think he would checkraise hand XX here 30% of the time" is not gonna help me.

This sort of math is most useful when you can narrow your opponent's hand range down more and when you have a good idea how they would play certain hands. Like if you're against a preflop capper. In these hands I think it is a waste of time. I actually think my "1 in 4" guess is more accurate then any answer I'd arrive at using math. I have a pretty decent idea of how often I'm good here from playing hundreds of thousands of hands. If I look at the situation more specifically using math, my answer will become increasingly inaccurate because I really have no idea how often he checkraises mid pair on the flop for example. I have a much better idea of how often I'm good with this board, against this sort of player, with this overall action.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
It's ok. You say the math is easy and it is. The problem is all I have is his pokertracker stats and this is a sb vs. hu situation. His range his huge and I really have no idea how he'd play a lot of hands. My assumptions would be too contrived to be useful IMO. Saying "yea, I think he would checkraise hand XX here 30% of the time" is not gonna help me.

This sort of math is most useful when you can narrow your opponent's hand range down more and when you have a good idea how they would play certain hands. Like if you're against a preflop capper. In these hands I think it is a waste of time. I actually think my "1 in 4" guess is more accurate then any answer I'd arrive at using math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better. If you have can't estimate how often he would play a low ace the way he is, how often the way he is playing a PP the way he is, how often he is playing a set the way he is, how often he is playing 48o the way he is, then it is very hard to estimate how good we are on the river. We will never be able to perfectly estimate how he plays any hands, but we should try to get as good a guess as we can. If you are off by 50%, so be it, but that is better than just not including a hand at all in your estimate and saying 0%. The math may be a bit complicated, but I believe it is definetly doable for anyone who would give it a shot. If noone does it by tomorrow, I will probably attempt it.

Edit: I do think it is good to guess what you think is right though. I would think that this is an easy call, but I hope that the math shows it goes the other way, so that I can plug a potential leak.