Lots Goin' On with A4s

[damaniac]

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Why are you not raising the river, you obviously are either behind or chopping.

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[thejameser]

IMO, i don't see that turn raise, without the merit of fold equity, being anything other than spewing. why charge yourself to draw?

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I like calling on the flop since our kicker is pretty weak and two have called. See what the turn brings for us.

Good turn card. I like your raise for a free showdown and it also extracts value from the guy in the middle.

On the river I'd just call hoping to split it. I don't see too much value in raising here.

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Yep.

UTG PFR stats are 6%. That almost certainly includes AA, KK, QQ, AK and AQ a vast majority of the time.
I think we can discount these holdings a fair amount.
Leaving A9, KQ, JT. I don't think he bets the flop with K9, Q9.

Considering the worst possible scenario is he holds JT. We still have 20% equity.
With the overlay from the other villian I think the raise is fine.
If this fish 3bets, if you thought he was ahead before - you can be sure now, and can fold the river UI. If he 3bets, he's betting the river aswell and you have same/higher implied odds for the flush outs.

If he calls your turn raise and checks to you on the river, you earn the same from your flush anyway.

It also allows you to take a free showdown a nonzero amount of time when we don't improve on the river.

I'll conceed it may not be standard or possibly not the best play, but this can never be as bad as you're making it out.
I think it comes down to how certain you are that UTG the fish has you 'crushed'.

[einbert]

Hi Chop,

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If he turned up K-10 I woudl be pissed about missing a value raise.

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If he turned up KT I wouldn't be pissed about missing a value raise, but I would be extremely surprised. I think if he even bets the turn with KT, we need to accept the fact that our player read is very very far from correct. I don't think our player read will be this far from correct very often at all.

Good luck,
einbert

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
If this fish 3bets, if you thought he was ahead before - you can be sure now, and can fold the river UI. If he 3bets, he's betting the river aswell and you have same/higher implied odds for the flush outs.

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I don't like paying three bets to showdown a hand I could have for two. I guess, another question is comparing the % of the time he three bets to the % of the time you hit your flush. While I agree you can take a FSD a nonzero (love the word) amount of time, a greater nonzero amount of time you raise and face a river donk.

There also exists the possiblity that he three bets the turn and checks a club river.

Overall, I don't think its a horrible play, or even that bad. I just think it might be unwarranted and not as good as simply calling.

And honestly, its really hard to discount those top holdings that much when his PFR is so low.

Just for kicks. I stoved a whole bunch of scenarios.

If 2nd Villian holds a heart FD.
And UTG holds.
AJ,AT
The raise is nuetral EV.

If he holds Ax where x is 9>
Our equity is 48%.

If UTG or Villian2 hold anything that crush us
Our equity is ~20%.

Villian has to have us beaten ~58% for the raise not to be correct.
I'll conceed that this is probably so.

I raise the River. I don't put villain on AK or AQ due to preflop behavior. I think the vast majority of the time you have a chop pot. I raise and hope he folds AT thinking he has kicker issues

[brettbrettr]

Thanks for doing the grunt work!!!!

Instead of raising the turn couldn't we :

A) call here, and raise a river flush / call a non flush?

wouldn't this be the most profitable way to play it? You put 2 bets (maybe more) in with the flush and don't have many worries about being 3-bet with a better hand.

Would this also charge UTG+1 as if he called one, he will probably continue to call? I guess the only problem with this is we don't charge UTG+1 to pay for his flush / straight draw and we miss the value on the turn (however if he has a sd/fd he would often have as many as 12 outs. Not a huge equity edge?)


That way when we make flush we commit a total 3 bets as a huge favourite. On the turn if we raise we commit a total of 3 bets when we make our flush but may also get 3-bet on the turn and it may end up costing us far more.

True