Troubling AQo Steal, What Would You've Done?

MeanGreenTT · #1 11-26-2005, 06:22 PM

Disclaimer: As usual, I'm posting a hand that gave me issues, but more times than not, it seems to end up being a "boring, clear cut decision to all but me" post garnishing very little replies. I can only hope I haven't once again done the same. If I have I apologize in advance. Be gentle and if it's THAT obvious, please teach a donkey luckbox in training how to fish, thanks!

8:15pm PS $3r/a. I'm moved to a new table nearing the end of level 6, hand in question takes place 1 orbit after I moved into seat 6, vilian is seat 8. I'm moved with T9k.

During the next orbit I steal the vilians' blind once, stack an opponent with AA then steal again sb v bb, putting me just over T13k, nothing outta the ordinary.

Vilian has gone from T10k to T7k in the same time frame. Recalling the played hands, he's lost money calling raises then folding on the Flop 5 times. He's tied 1 hand, playing 87s and flopping Trips.

Not that I think it matters but 3 hands prior to one in question, I get a "sup bro" and it turns out 2 brothers are at the table. Hand occurs just after the start of level 7, 100/200/25.

Here we go:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t14033)
UTG+1 (t22653)
MP1 (t3160)
MP2 (t24330)
MP3 (t12976)
Hero (t13824)
Button (t28160)
SB (t6912)
BB (t5900)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to t700, 1 fold, SB calls t600, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1500) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t1100, SB calls t1100.

I make a standard continuation bet after he checks, looking to take it down right here, but much to my suprise, he makes the call. EVERY other hand he's played, he's folded at this point.

What's the plan for the Turn, do you fire the 2nd barrel and if so, how much?

Turn: (t3700) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t2000, SB calls t2000.

I decided to fire the 2nd barrel, FULLY expecting to take it down right then and there, but again, to my utter shock and amazement, he cold-calls yet again.

Should I've bet more? Do you shut it down on the River? Or fire the 3rd barrel, putting him in? What if he leads out? Damn sure feels like I'm behind here [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

River: (t7700) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t1200.

Hero???

Now I'm not a stoopid player (although I'm sure they're plenty who'd disagree). I KNOW pot odds say I have to make this call...but the ONLY thing I can beat at this point is a stone cold bluff! He coulda connected with any part of that board or have pockets.

Combine that with the fact, he's check-called every street, totally contrary to the previous hands I've seen him play.

Make the call, knowing all you can beat is a lower bluff or make a "weak-tight" fold?

gumpzilla · #2 11-26-2005, 06:30 PM

I don't think this is the greatest of spots for a second barrel. That's a very draw heavy board that could have connected quite well with him, and you've got quite possibly 10 useful outs. Check behind on the turn and hope you can clean up nicely on the river.

I don't think it matters too much what you do on the river. Folding seems fine to me, particularly given that you've seen this guy give up postflop repeatedly.

stevepa · #3 11-26-2005, 06:33 PM

I would probably call the river, if it's a mistake it's not a big one...and I guess I get to see what he had...mainly I don't like to fold getting 7-1. But I don't really like your turn bet. You probably have to call a push but you'll usually be pretty far behind. I would almost certainly check-behind, but if you're going to semi-bluff, I would lean more towards just pushing and avoiding awkward river spots like this.

Steve

#4 11-26-2005, 06:34 PM

So Pot is at 9k and you need to put in another 1.2k having already invested 3.8k.

Calling and missing will drop you to 8800 - still reasonable at this point in the tourny, I think you have to make the call. At the very least you will gain information and know what he cold-calls with.

#5 11-26-2005, 06:37 PM

Check behind on the turn. There are very few hands he's calling with on the flop that don't call on the turn, and you don't mind a free card with two overs and a nut gutshot draw.

On the river, you should call because, as you said, you're getting great odds and there are draws that didn't get there. If the flop had been 259r, then the river's an easy fold, IMHO.

ansky451 · #6 11-26-2005, 07:29 PM

I like a check behind on the turn- or a bigger bet. You wouldn't be so small with AA would you? Remember when you are bluffing you are pretending you have a good hand, so play it like you have that hand.

I check behind on the turn though, because:

1) You have a lot of good river cards, any of your double gutter cards, and an ace or queen is probably good too.

2) You actually do have "some" showdown value, so if a brick rivers and he checks, you may have the best hand.

3) I think a turn check raise here isnt all that uncommon, and I want to see a river, so I'd take the free card.

#7 11-26-2005, 07:34 PM

tricky one, this sort of situation foxes me often too. The fact that he has check-called on flop and turn suggest a drawing hand. He's already put in over half his stack, so it makes sense to me that he had a draw, missed and now is making one last attempt to win the pot the only way he can, with a bluff. I think i would call here, expecting to see something like A-9h .

You are right about the pot odds, but only if you think he is bluffing. It may also be worth it to see his hand and find out some valuable information about the way he plays certain hands. e.g. did he flop a set or two pair and didn't protect his hand against a draw? did he have a flush draw and was willing to chase it down to the end, then make a bluff on the end? It could pay to know these things for later.

utmt40 · #8 11-26-2005, 07:35 PM

Thats a huge value bet there only 1200 after he called your bet of 2000 on the turn. It could also be the type of bet to make you want to come over the top and trap you too. There is no way I call with Ace high here.

EDIT: After that bet he is only leaving himself 1912 chips, this is an easy fold.

MeanGreenTT · #9 11-26-2005, 07:43 PM

I really want to say thanks y'all, ESPECIALLY the "poobahs" that took time to repsond! Everyone has given me a lot to think about on this hand, thanks!!!

#10 11-26-2005, 07:49 PM

I think the river is an easy fold. It is true that you're getting 7-1, but I think that there is definatly not a chance of 7-1 that he is bluffing, and that is the only thing that you beat.

Seriously, what is the likelyhood that he will cold call two bets to the river and then make a VERY small bet right into you and expect you to fold? He has no reason to believe that you don't have a very strong hand, as you fired two strong bets at the pot. I really think that the chances of him being on a bluff here are much, much worse than 7-1, making this a fold.