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#11
11-09-2005, 08:55 AM
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Re: hand vs GuyOnTilt
In this situation I always prefer to spike a 6 on the river for the boat.
Seriously: fold. 
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#14
11-09-2005, 10:10 AM
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Re: hand vs GuyOnTilt
Also, without a read, I think it's fine to the turn and from there I think I like a fold.
The flop is barren and GoT could be betting with a wide range here (pair or not) thinking you've missed. You didn't miss as this flop is great for you, so the raise seems pretty standard. Button's call is very scary, especially with the rag board, the weak-tight table, and the LAG read (although maybe by trying to win too many pots, he makes some bad calls). The turn card is definitely not great, but also not horrible. GoT bets, so let's look at some hand ranges. First off, your hand range leading into the turn... Raise preflop UTG shows a pair probably down to 66 or 55 and non-pairs down to KQo, ATo and maybe KJs/o (7-handed). You raise the rag flop, which doesn't necessarily reduce your range much (especially with that flop), so you can be seen as having either a pocket pair, a made hand with AJ or KJ, or overs. Button's hand is also loosely defined. A cold-call on the button vs a UTG raiser doesn't make too much sense, but it probably means a mid pocket pair 6s-8s, a decent high hand AJ+, or perhaps a speculative hand like JTs if he's that loose. The cold-call on the drawless flop is much more informative. He either has an unlikely set of 5s, a pocket-pair less than jacks, or a hand with a jack in it. Two cold-calls in a row though, I have to admit I'm very confused by this... especially after you defined him as a LAG. Still, LAGs usually like to bet or raise with much of anything, so his calls do show considerable weakness if the read is correct. Finally, lets look at GoT's play in the context of the other players. As we said before, the flop play doesn't give us much information on either of your hands. You could still have overcards, he could still have nothing. The turn is more interesting. A donk bet into two players, both who voluntarily put in two bets 'cold' on the flop shows a lot of strength. What is his bet trying to accomplish. Either he has a strong hand and is betting for value, or he has a weaker hand and is trying to avoid a free card. With the button to act behind you, I think the chance of having the turn checked through is minimal. Thus, it's very likely he has a strong hand and is betting for value. I don't think he'd check-raise the turn with a strong hand because there's a chance he'd be facing you with two cold (or with an overcall), and even if he did get things to go "check, bet, call, raise", he'd be very unlikely to get much more out of either of you. So, I think it's most likely that he's betting here hoping you either raise or call (as the button would be more likely to overcall in this spot than you would be). Thus, I think you can fold here. Hmm, one last thought is that if GoT is really smart and reads button as weak, he could be betting as a squeeze play to try and fold your better hand to get it heads up with the button. Still, that would require him to have a hand that he thinks is behind you and ahead of the button, and I can't think of a hand that would fit. Wow, lots of rambling, but it was fun typing out my thoughts. How'd I do?
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#15
11-09-2005, 10:16 AM
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Re: hand vs GuyOnTilt
You'd really be hoping that GoT has 44 right? I mean I don't think he has many 3's and he did call an UTG raise from the BB. It is 7 handed though, so hmm. don't we have to put him on something like 77-88 or a J? even if he has 66-44 that's probably the bottom of his range so we can't really play off of that
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#17
11-09-2005, 03:43 PM
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Re: hand vs GuyOnTilt
"So, I think it's most likely that he's betting here hoping you either raise or call"
This is a really good way to think about things at the table. His turn bet is the 4th time he's put money into this pot vs. a tight (assuming anly 2+2er would be recognized as tight in a midlimit live game) UTG who has done nothing but raise at every opportunity. GoT wants action. At the very least he does not want to give AK/AQ/KQ a free card.
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#19
11-09-2005, 04:05 PM
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Re: hand vs GuyOnTilt
First, this is a limp reraising hand. Play it as such and I think you'll be suprised how much easier the hand becomes to play. Second GoT likes to donk it up because he likes to attack weakness. He sees into your soul and can see that you didn't like the flop, he's putting pressure on you to fold your marginal chit. Obviously you are better than he thinks but he still is likely beating you and you need to close it up on him. Raise and cap if given the opportunity.
On the river push all in.
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#20
11-09-2005, 04:30 PM
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Re: hand vs GuyOnTilt
[ QUOTE ]
how is this not an easy fold after button called two on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] because the button is a loose retard and GoT could be squeezing bakkubakku out.
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