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#11
11-01-2005, 11:50 AM
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Re: 15/30 AKo vs jason_t
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm leaning towards a peel on the flop, and folding UI on the turn. Jason isn't gonna be capping with anything that we are ahead of right now [/ QUOTE ]what range of hands do you put jason on that merits a flop peel + turn fold? [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played with Jason, but I'll take a guess at QQ-AA and AKs. I like the peel for the backdoor straight chances (22.5:1 I think), with top pair chances being a maybe or a maybe split. 
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#12
11-01-2005, 12:20 PM
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Re: 15/30 AKo vs jason_t
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm leaning towards a peel on the flop, and folding UI on the turn. Jason isn't gonna be capping with anything that we are ahead of right now [/ QUOTE ]what range of hands do you put jason on that merits a flop peel + turn fold? [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played with Jason, but I'll take a guess at QQ-AA and AKs. I like the peel for the backdoor straight chances (22.5:1 I think), with top pair chances being a maybe or a maybe split. [/ QUOTE ] i think you need to add JJ into that range of hands. against AA-JJ i have a weighted 4.5 outs not including my backdoor straight outs. i'm not sure how to do the calcs if we add AKs into the mix, but it obviously adds value to my hand. even if jason's range is only AA-QQ, i'll have 3.75 outs which makes the turn a peel when you include implied odds, backdoor straight outs and the times he has AKs. in short, folding the turn would be bad.
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#13
11-01-2005, 12:23 PM
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river
[ QUOTE ]
same good 15/30 game that jason posted about. EMP lady is probably a bit too loose both pre and post flop with decent aggression BB is loose and very passive preflop: EMP lady limps, jason raises on the button, i 3-bet A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB, BB calls, EMP calls, jason caps, we all call (4 for 16SB) flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] checked to jason who bets, what's my action and plan for the rest of the hand? [/ QUOTE ] so jason bet, i called, BB folded, EMP lady called. turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] checked around! river: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i'm first, what now?
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#16
11-01-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] same good 15/30 game that jason posted about. EMP lady is probably a bit too loose both pre and post flop with decent aggression BB is loose and very passive preflop: EMP lady limps, jason raises on the button, i 3-bet A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB, BB calls, EMP calls, jason caps, we all call (4 for 16SB) flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] checked to jason who bets, what's my action and plan for the rest of the hand? [/ QUOTE ] so jason bet, i called, BB folded, EMP lady called. turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] checked around! river: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i'm first, what now? [/ QUOTE ] bet?
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#17
11-01-2005, 12:29 PM
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Re: 15/30 AKo vs jason_t
[ QUOTE ]
Makes sense to peel. I don't think you can get this HU. Are we limiting Jason's range to JJ+, AK? [/ QUOTE ] pretty much. i think the only hand we can really add is TT but i'm not sure if he caps with it. adding TT gives me about a weighted 3.86 outs (again not including AK in his range). after TT, the more we widen his range, the more my EV goes up in the hand.
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#18
11-01-2005, 12:46 PM
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Re: river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] same good 15/30 game that jason posted about. EMP lady is probably a bit too loose both pre and post flop with decent aggression BB is loose and very passive preflop: EMP lady limps, jason raises on the button, i 3-bet A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB, BB calls, EMP calls, jason caps, we all call (4 for 16SB) flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] checked to jason who bets, what's my action and plan for the rest of the hand? [/ QUOTE ] so jason bet, i called, BB folded, EMP lady called. turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] checked around! river: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i'm first, what now? [/ QUOTE ] Seeing as someone could have a ten they slowed down with on the turn I'd probably check, but call a bet that might be trying to steal the pot with another Ace or AK. If you bet, I don't think you'd get any callers that you beat anyway and someone with a ten or an (admittedly unlikely) 7 or 4 will raise it.
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#19
11-01-2005, 01:44 PM
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Re: 15/30 AKo vs jason_t
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm leaning towards a peel on the flop, and folding UI on the turn. Jason isn't gonna be capping with anything that we are ahead of right now [/ QUOTE ] what range of hands do you put jason on that merits a flop peel + turn fold? [/ QUOTE ] I can't see jason capping with JJ, which basically puts it at QQ-AA and AKs. One hand we are drawing to runner runner, one hand is a chop(though he may be on a freeroll), and the others we have outs against. I just don't see jason screwing around in a big multiway pot, so capping with AQs or JJ see a bit out of character IMO
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#20
11-01-2005, 01:48 PM
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Re: river
I'd lean towards either bet/calling has its disadvantages, but would work is jason was directly to your left, as he may raise to get you to fold the rier. It is very clear that he has what we have now.
The real question is, how likely are the other players to call one bet on the river, and are they likely to fold for two. I think a check, looking to CR if jason is the one who makes a stab at it might work in protecting your hand, and possibly getting you the whole pot. If jason doesn't place in a bet on the river, I'd call one, and fold an overcall
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