$11 how bad is this push?

DeathbySuckout · #1 09-28-2005, 11:10 PM

I really felt villian missed the flop, so I took advantage. Bad?

#Game No : 2792650777
***** Hand History for Game 2792650777 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:16159472 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Wednesday, September 28, 22:17:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 11513 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 3: jibs1234 ( $615 )
Seat 4: suited_cards ( $735 )
Seat 6: justgo13 ( $2177 )
Seat 7: BIGGER_NUTZ ( $725 )
Seat 2: wiggs73 ( $685 )
Seat 1: locustreign1 ( $1550 )
Seat 10: Ramsey03 ( $750 )
Seat 8: BlitzEmAll ( $763 )
Trny:16159472 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BIGGER_NUTZ [ 5c 5s ]
Ramsey03 folds.
locustreign1 folds.
wiggs73 folds.
>You have options at Table 11696 Table!.
jibs1234 folds.
suited_cards folds.
justgo13 calls [100].
BIGGER_NUTZ calls [50].
BlitzEmAll checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, 6s, 3d ]
BIGGER_NUTZ checks.
BlitzEmAll checks.
justgo13 bets [225].
BIGGER_NUTZ is all-In [625]

lorinda · #2 09-28-2005, 11:14 PM

Sadly, this is one of those plays that is good if it is right and bad if it is wrong. It's pretty much that simple.

If you read him right, you've paid attention well through the game so far, and if you read him wrong, then maybe he's better (or worse) than you thought.

Of course sometimes you could be wrong by coincidence, but basically it comes down to the above.

FWIW I don't think the play is bad as such, although against some types of $11 player there's a 100% chance he has AA-QQ.

Lori

dan123 · #3 09-28-2005, 11:18 PM

QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

swiftrhett · #4 09-28-2005, 11:19 PM

Remember, at the $11 tables, big bets like that from novices, as Harrington says, generally indicate strength. Pushing here in response to checks is not bad, but yeah, I would say pushing here is -EV. You do gain EV from the times the villian makes that bet with overcards.

lorinda · #5 09-28-2005, 11:21 PM

QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

Actually he has Ac Kh but that's not the question.

Lori

DyessMan89 · #6 09-28-2005, 11:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

Actually he has Ac Kh but that's not the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

He actually had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but thats not the question.

Anyways, you either push pre-flop, or make a StopNGo on the flop. Or fold. Thats it. Id probobly use the StopNGo myself.

swiftrhett · #7 09-28-2005, 11:29 PM

I don't believe a read can help you here at all. Basically any type of $11 player could have: Overcards, 2 pair, trips, and pretty much a wide range of hands.

OK, here is my estimate:
3x (2 pair, matching the 3): 10%
Overcards: 45%
6x (trips): 10%
Overpair: 20%
Underpair: 5%
Everything Else: 10%
---

I know that my estimate is not very accurate, but that's my first guess.

[ QUOTE ]

If you read him right, you've paid attention well through the game so far, and if you read him wrong, then maybe he's better (or worse) than you thought.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

swiftrhett · #8 09-28-2005, 11:35 PM

So it looks like I'm estimating 70% of the time, you're the favor, and you have the pot odds as well, so your push may be +EV at the $11's. Seriously, I play a lot of $11's and it is very common for people to place large bets with two overcards in this position.

DeathbySuckout · #9 09-28-2005, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

Actually he has Ac Kh but that's not the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

He actually had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but thats not the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry dude. Never question Lorinda.

BlitzEmAll folds.
justgo13 calls [400].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
justgo13 shows [ Ac, Kh ] a full house, Sixes full of aces.
BIGGER_NUTZ shows [ 5c, 5s ] a full house, Sixes full of fives.
justgo13 wins 1550 chips from the main pot with a full house, Sixes full of aces.
BIGGER_NUTZ finished in eighth place.
>You have options at Table 11801 Table!.
BIGGER_NUTZ has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2792656538 starts.

The more I look at it, the more I hate it. I can think of one reason to push, and a bunch of reasons not to.

swiftrhett · #10 09-28-2005, 11:54 PM

I can't believe I got suckered into responding to some badbeat post whiner. Hey crybaby, let me spell it out for you:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 6s 3d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 72.1717 % 72.02% 00.15% { 5c5s }
Hand 2: 27.8283 % 27.68% 00.15% { AcKh }

Board: 6c 6s 3d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 84.0909 % 84.09% 00.00% { 5c5s }
Hand 2: 15.9091 % 15.91% 00.00% { AcKh }

Waaaaahh you lost a bet 2.6 to 1 in your favor. I don't think that's ever happened in poker!!!