River stats question

[Guy McSucker]

I was just looking at my detailed stats in PokerTracker and got interested in the stats for river actions.

In the "bet/raised/check-raised" column we see

Ww/oSD 25.57%
Fold 1.75%
WSD 72.68%
W$SD 76.95%

River bluffs seldom work and I don't think I make too many. Suppose conservatively that of the 25% I win without showdown, I'm actually ahead 15%. i.e. 10% of my river bets are successful bluffs; I think it's more like 3% but anyway.

The times I get called, we see a showdown (73%) and I win 77% of the time, meaning I am ahead 56% of the time. Add to this the 15% I am not called and we find I am ahead 71% of the time when I bet the river. I think it's more, to be honest.

Does this mean I should value-bet the river more?

Against one opponent I should be value betting when I'm 50% likely to have the best hand; against more than one I should bet even more often. Is that right?

What do other people's stats look like here?

Guy.

[waffle]

Bump.. Interesting post and I haven't seen these numbers covered before.

[ QUOTE ]

In the "bet/raised/check-raised" column we see

Ww/oSD 25.57%
Fold 1.75%
WSD 72.68%
W$SD 76.95%


[/ QUOTE ]

My numbers are:

Ww/oSD 21.14%
Fold 1.25%
WSD 77.61%
W$SD 79.57%

When calling, my W$SD is 28.14% ..

I'm a huge river wimp and I really need to work on the value bets. I'm interested in seeing the numbers of players more skilled than I. (Any numbers, basically [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[TMFS9]

[ QUOTE ]
The times I get called, we see a showdown (73%) and I win 77% of the time, meaning I am ahead 56% of the time. Add to this the 15% I am not called and we find I am ahead 71% of the time when I bet the river. I think it's more, to be honest.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that the 15% figure shouldn't be included in value betting, because value betting is all about being ahead when you are called. IIRC in TOP the times you should be ahead is 55%.

[aslowjoe]

[ QUOTE ]
Ww/oSD 25.57%
Fold 1.75%
WSD 72.68%
W$SD 76.95%


[/ QUOTE ]

My numbers are
W/oSD 22.59
fold .36
WSD 77.05
W$SD 79.36

I think in the end I do miss too many value bets. My numbers for W/oSD are a bit lower because out of postion I like to check to induce bluffs when I don't think a worse hand will call. I do pick up a lot of bluffs but I do miss some value bets usually when a person holds pocket pairs.

[Victor]

im at:

wwosd: 23.53
fold: 3.33
wsd: 73.14
w$sd: 72.14

this is at 10-20 and i dontreally know what these stats mean so if anyone has some incite this should make a helpful thread.

[DCWGaming]

From what I understand of the river stats, it seems like the W$SD% is alot more important than I really realized before...

So if your W$SD% is 75, then 75% of the time on the river where you bet/raise/check-raise, you ended up either winning or tie-ing.

I dont really know how to tell what the ideal # for this stat is though. A lower number would mean more value betting on the river. But i dont know how low is too low.

[cartman]

Here is a post I made on this exact topic a while back. There are several good responses. The ones by stevepa and Jeff W particulartly convinced me that there was an error in my logic. By the way, I am quite certain that I wasn't value betting enough at the time.

Cartman