Theory help

MJL · #1 07-12-2005, 10:13 AM

I've come to understand that if I have a pocket pair and my opponent has overcards I will win about 55% of the time. I have learned to figure out that if my opponent has overcards 60% of the time I multiply 60x55 to find that I will win 33% of these times.
My question is what is used to fiqure the chances of an opponent having certain hands or folding. Is their a formula or is it random?

Example in a tournament Im at 3800, less than my opponent and the blinds are 300/600.
I have a pair of tens in LP. My opponent open raises to 1800 in MP and I must figure out if I should go all in, call or fold.
I must figure out:
He has a higher pair how often?
He has over cards how often?
He has one higher and one lower how often?
He will fold how often?

The first question is: Is how often a good estimate or is it more logical than that?

Second:
After I come up with the possiblily of winning pecentage what do I do now. If I win 70% of the time what now? How does this play into EV.

Sng NL only · #2 07-12-2005, 10:40 AM

Sorry cant comment on the math but what I think you should take into account is, what are my chances of getting a hand better than TT before I bust out of this tourney. If i move all in I can double up, steal chips, or bust out. If I call, thats half my stack and that leaves me with a lot less chips to play with and I will have to push sooner or later anyways. If I fold to his raise, I still ahve 3000+chips to try to work with.

I personally would have no problem pushing all in with TT and crossing my fingers.

mtrubo · #3 07-17-2005, 05:05 AM

You hold TT
two card combinations left: 1225
pairs > TT: C(4,2) * 4 = 24 -> 1.96%
over cards: C(16,2) = 120 -> 9.8%
higher + lower: 16 * 32 = 512 -> 41.8%
matching pair: 1 -> 0.08%
the rest: 568 -> 46.37%

if my math is corrent (someone please verify) and assuming he/she will only fold with "the rest" then they'll be folding 46% of the time. Although, if they're making an 1800 bet, i think chances are pretty good they'll have one of the not "the rest" hands.

Niediam · #4 07-17-2005, 05:19 AM

You shouldn't even really worry about what your opponent has. With your stack so small compaired to the blinds (and I'd assume antes?) you should be looking for any excuse to go all in if you are first to entery the pot or if somebody has opened and you have a reasonable hand.