a "mildly interesting" 98o hand

[chief444]

So they're both really that passive? If so then yeah. Totally a judgement call on your part. But yeah I think it's either what you say or call a blank. Either you're 89 has a chance to be good unimproved or it doesn't and an 89orQ are the only cards that change that if it doesn't.

[kyro]

Check-folding a 4? Eep. What are we putting them on? 44? Q8? Can they limp QQ here? I can't see folding if a 4 hits when only a couple hands beat me, even with our description of the players. Make me smarter though, please.

[GetThere1Time]

Excuse me for being a bit slow on this thread but let me see if I can understand this...

These guys are super passive so LPs turn raise must mean an 8. EP who made the call/3-bet on the turn, the super strong move couldn't have anyting but 44, since LP has the last 8. Unless you put LP on 44 and EP on QQ, Q8.

A 9 or Q wins you the pot in scenario 1, but in scenario 2 if you hit a Q or 9 you still might be dead.

So you're c/ring a 9, bet/folding a Q, and check/folding everything else?

[PokerBob]

I'm not nuts about the flop bet.

[chief444]

If I understand Bakku here he's more or less saying these two opponents are passive enough that he's confident the hand range is basically 8x, 44 or QQ for both...with LP likely having 8x and EP likely having 44. So a 4 only gives Bakku a tie for second best. A Q likely gives him a chop but he needs to bet to gain his portion of the call from 44. A 9 likely gives him a winner but a smaller full house will bet the river for him and therefore the check/raise. If by some miracle chance the last 8 came up he should bet. Anything else and he's clearly behind. Again, this is just going by his read.

[private joker]

I think check/folding a river 4 is pretty awful. If the EP call/3-bettor has A8 (as indicated by his turn play), a river 4 saves you. Q8 is an unlikely holding, and most people raise QQ preflop, especially at Commerce 9/18 (even though you describe the table as passive). Quads are an unlikely holding too, so I wouldn't put someone on 44 if a river 4 hit.

I do agree with check-folding a blank, but staying in with a Q, 9, or 4 (or obviously the case 8).

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not nuts about the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey PB, thanks for mentioning that. It seems pretty thin, but I think a bet is in order. These guys are really loose passive, this flop is getting checked through like 90% of the time if I have the best hand since it is drawless. I'm not comfortable check-raising a late position bettor cuz of the passiveness of the game. I'm most likely calling a bet anyway when the action comes back to me so I like betting and seeing what happens then reevaluating.

[bakku]

Chief has pretty much posted my analysis in his posts. Most people said they wouldn't fold the river but I think if you're doing any hand reading, folding the river UI is prudent. In a loose passive game where people's bets and raises can be trusted (especially in multi-way pots) I can put these guys on pretty narrow hand ranges.

Hand ranges:
LP: QQ, Q8, 44, 8x with QQ and Q8 being extremely unlikely since he did't cap the turn.
EP: also QQ, Q8, 44, 8x with 8x being the least likely based on how strong of a play he made.

Based on these hand ranges, a 4 falling on the river will never give me a winner, I'll either be up against quads or a bigger boat. A Q falling on the river will give me a tie for the best hand a good percentage of the time. I have to bet it myself cuz 44 and another 8 will check through way too often fearing a Q. If I get raised I think it's a pretty easy fold. If a 9 hits I can c/r cuz EP bettor will surely bet and LP will call and I'd probably make a really really crying call if I get 3-bet.


River made the board Q8487, EP bet, LP called, I fold.
EP has 44, LP had 86o