How close is it?

[PrayingMantis]

You mean check-calling MP1?

[MLG]

right. unless heavy action from the other guys makes it a fold.

[PrayingMantis]

Not a bad plan. I believe making this bet I made is superior to checking if MP1's stack is deeper, but since it isn't, I probably achieve more by checking. I wonder where the cut-off is.

[MLG]

its a good question, probably whatever number lets there be 2 decision points in the betting instead of one.....problem is that number differs from player to player.

[freekobe]

What about pushing on the flop? Any benefit to that?

[MLG]

the problem is then the preflop raiser only calls with hands that beat you and always folds hands you are beating.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
given MP1s stack I think checking the flop has to be right.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this line here... I'd be checking with the intention to call MP1's desperation push if BB and CO didn't show strength.

I wonder what BB's action would've been on the flop if you had checked...

Given BB's action as you posted, I have a feeling he either has a 9 of some kind, a PP (maybe an overpair... 77-JJ or so) or maybe even JT... this is a tough spot [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[PrayingMantis]

Results:

I call, BB showed 85o and I didn't improved.

I was actually getting the right odds to call even if I somehow knew he was on exactly that hand.

pokenum -h ad 9d - 8s 5c -- 9s 8d 5h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 8d 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad 9d 288 29.09 687 69.39 15 1.52 0.298
8s 5c 687 69.39 288 29.09 15 1.52 0.702

If I think that sets are somewhat less probable (because of my read of his push) and can throw in some X9's into his range, this is not such a close call actually.

My other actions in the hand are debatable, though.

[William]

In this kind of situations, one usually begins analyzing all the hands one could beat and often convincing oneself that other players are on a "move".
However, most of the time we end staring at a hand that beats our own.
I am not saying that a fold is correct here, I am just saying that when there are only 2 tables left, people don't make "moves" that often and we have to learn to give raises the respect they deserve.

William [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
when there are only 2 tables left, people don't make "moves" that often and we have to learn to give raises the respect they deserve.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a very important thing to remember (regardless of the specific details of this hand). something that in the heat of the moment many players, myself included, seem to forget, occasionaly.

Welcome back William!