Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Build a time machine, go back in time 5 minutes before this hand, put yourself on 'post and fold', grab a beer and fix yourself a sandwich.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter? Even if he pushes here and loses he still gets his seat.

[adanthar]

Right. Therefore, the sandwich and beer are +EV.

[Lurshy]

[ QUOTE ]
-13520 * .68 + 13520 * .32 = -9193.6 + 4326.4 = -4867.2.

If you fold, your chip equity is -4000. So if he always calls, fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Without being quick with the math, I was trying to figure out where I was better off. My gut told me Chip EV was - with a push, even with the overlay.

But I also was thinking:

I don't care if I lose the hand! If I win the hand it is over (or nearly so), but if lose the hand, I still win.

I know you can't do that type of negative ev calling indefinetly, but I could not imagine the 5K of chips affecting my chances at all.

That is obnoxious logic.

I pushed, and my luckbox was not empty yet. He called, and was momentarily pleased when He flipped up A5 vs 23, but then there is that nasty 3 on the flop and he doesn't improve.

3 people went out that hand (two at other tables), one more hand at our new table and it was over. I felt a little bad for the guy, but he would have been happy if his hand held up...

I need to go to a good deed and get some more positive Karma. Be back later.

[Lurshy]

[ QUOTE ]
-13520 * .68 + 13520 * .32 = -9193.6 + 4326.4 = -4867.2.

If you fold, your chip equity is -4000. So if he always calls, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at your math a bit closer, I don't think you took into account that I am in the SB, and there was about 1-2K in antes, so assuming he calls, I am getting about 3:1 or more for my 5K bet.

[durron597]

I did take into account that you are the SB, that's why I compared the -4800 or whatever to -4000 instead of 0. However, I did not take into account the antes; with 1000 in antes you should always push. And then get yourself a beer and a sandwich.

[sloth469]

[ QUOTE ]
well of course if you have AA's that is different and you you have a chance to actually eliminate a player without risking a big part of your stack with a hand that is a huge favorite to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is wrong too. AA is still a fold, because of the crap everyone else is playing. Nothing to gain everything to lose if you are sure you can fold into a seat. This is a situation where it is now correct to stall on every decision. And like Augie said it really isn't close.

[tiger7210]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is wrong too. AA is still a fold, because of the crap everyone else is playing. Nothing to gain everything to lose if you are sure you can fold into a seat. This is a situation where it is now correct to stall on every decision. And like Augie said it really isn't close

[/ QUOTE ]

Is risking less that 10% of your stack considered everything to lose here as a huge favorite with a chance to knock someone out?

If BB had a bigger stack I would fold AA's here but not for what is essentially 10% of your chips where even if I lose I still 5 orbits to see 5 players eliminated.

[sloth469]

This comes down to whether you put a price on time. I'm in no hurry to see the tourney end. I've already qualified and I'm not taking any sort of risk of doubling anyone up (no matter how small it may be). Let the short stacks fight over it.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
fold, you said yourself you get in either way.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he gets in either way, what's the rationale for preferring a fold over a push?

If we want to analyze this theoretically, first let's acknowledge that it isn't really a 100% chance of winning the seat by folding, it's closer to 99.999%. If we push with our 3-2, does this probability increase to 99.9991%, or does it decrease to 99.9989%?

I don't know the answer, and for practical purposes it doesn't really matter; just do whatever you feel like.

[Lurshy]

I think MBE hit this one. If it doesn't make a difference, then it doesn't make a difference.