My Downswing Has Hit 300 BB

[MEbenhoe]

So I'm allowed to make a post about it now right?

After having dabbled in 3/6 and 5/10 many times before while playing 2/4 full full time, I recently finally made the move to playing 3/6 full time with a more than sufficient bankroll. When the party bonus came out, for some reason or another I decided I would clear the bonus at 2/4 (Possibly a stupid decision considering I'd been winning at a decent rate at 3/6 early on in my transition). Well while clearing the bonus at 2/4 I suddenly went on a nice 300 BB downswing. Honestly, I've felt that I've been playing on top of my game, but have just been running bad for a few days. However since I might be bias, I figured I'd see if you guys could spot anything that might be causing this.

My stats at 2/4 before the downswing were:

VPIP 21.47
VPIP from SB 30.32
Folded SB to a Steal 73.24
Folded BB to a Steal 65.96
Att. to Steal 29.35
W$WSF 36.13
WSD 35.43
W$SD 49.06
PFR 10.09
Aggression factor Flop: 2.02 Turn: 2.18 River 1.69 Total: 1.95
Folded to River Bet 36.86
BB/100 3.61

During Downswing:

VPIP 22.65
VPIP from SB 29.71
Folded SB to a Steal 90.00
Folded BB to a Steal 46.67
Att. to Steal 31.58
W$WSF 27.40
WSD 34.48
W$SD 40.53
PFR 11.52
Aggression factor Flop: 1.98 Turn: 2.14 River 1.38 Total: 1.79
Folded to River Bet 38.89
BB/100 -10.05

What I noticed is that most of these numbers are very close to there normal standard, however the W$WSF and W$SD are both much lower than usual. Is this a sign that I'm simply running bad, or what are some other possible reasons? Given that I still have a sufficient bankroll for 3/6, can I move back up to 3/6 or should I stay at 2/4 for awhile, possibly even switching it up by playing some 1/2 6 max?

Thanks, any comments appreciated.

[Sponger15SB]

Sample size before the downswing?

[MEbenhoe]

20k

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm allowed to make a post about it now right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. At least I can't tell you not to until I've had one of my own.

[Nate tha' Great]

I hate to say it, but the pre-downswing stats seem to indicate some potential leaks.

A 21.5% VPIP is a little bit high, especailly since you're *not* especially aggressive in blind stealing/blind defense. My guess is that you're limping in with some hands too early, and probably overlimping in some cases where you'd be better off raising. These mistakes are compounding postflop since you're not taking initiative in enough hands.

The W$SD is also a little bit low. I'm not a fascist about W$SD, but think it needs to be a bit higher if you're not playing especially aggressively postflop, which you aren't. As a general rule, I think you want to target a W$SD plus a W$WSF in the range of 90% (yours is 85%). Honestly, it looks like you're playing a guessing game a lot of the time postflop, without doing quite enough to define your hand or to pick up some pots that you might not rightfully deserve.

[Justin A]

Your W$SD was low even before the downswing. Maybe you're calling down when it's obvious you're beat a bit too often? But yeah, when that number is around 40, it means you've been running really really bad. I usually use W$SD to see how I've been running.

You should play 5/10, win 120 BB and then you'll be breakeven even though you're still 180 BB down. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[krishanleong]

Meb,

A request, please post the number of hands, the number of straights, flushes, full houses, the % of the time they win, your one pair win % and your 2 pair win %.

It would be better to post the good and the bad for comparison sake. This is one way to see how you have been running.

You get a straight, flush or full about once every 200 hands. (Actually a little less but the aproximation is fine) So for 20K hands you should have 100 of each. All premiums should win at least 80%. You one pair win % should be around 44% and two pair around 55%.

Krishan

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
As a general rule, I think you want to target a W$SD plus a W$WSF in the range of 90% (yours is 85%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this the poker equivalent of OPS? Or is it closer to WHIP?

[bicyclekick]

agree with everything except the 90% added together part...unless that's specific to low limits, otherwise I'm messed up at 39.6/55.6 ~=85 as well. My vpip is 22.59, which is very similar to his (mine includes a good amount of shorthanded play)

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
agree with everything except the 90% added together part...unless that's specific to low limits, otherwise I'm messed up at 39.6/55.6 ~=85 as well. My vpip is 22.59, which is very similar to his (mine includes a good amount of shorthanded play)

[/ QUOTE ]

You might want to add those numbers again and see what you get. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]