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  #21  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:41 PM
jrz1972 jrz1972 is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

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97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

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That's what I meant by "marginally profitable."
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  #22  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:42 PM
GrunchCan GrunchCan is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

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  #23  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:42 PM
grjr grjr is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

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Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

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I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.
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  #24  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:43 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

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Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

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I looked up some numbers and it seems that you will flop something worth playing about 33% of the time.
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  #25  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:44 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

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That's what I meant by "marginally profitable."

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Sorry -- semantics.
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  #26  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:46 PM
jrz1972 jrz1972 is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

No problem. I agree with your take on this.
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  #27  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:46 PM
grjr grjr is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

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I can see where your 27% VPIP comes from [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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Yep, and if that smirk was a wink then things would be a little smoother.
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  #28  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:46 PM
wyoak wyoak is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

fold PF but people said that.

that flop was about as good as it gets for you. flush draw and double gutshot....you could cap this if you think it'll get you a free card if a blank turn falls or if another player was in. Heads up you don't quite have the equity to cap solely for value.
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  #29  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:47 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

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1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

Edit:

3) Futhermore, you should only expect to win about half the time you "hit" the flop, because you will either have a draw that comes in only 33% of the time (and win only about 85% of those) or you will have a pair that is difficult to protect.
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  #30  
Old 04-13-2005, 12:53 PM
grjr grjr is offline
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Default Re: Marginal hand #2 Play or no play

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[ QUOTE ]
I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

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1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.



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I'm not following you here. What claim did I make that is false?
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