I folded TPTK for more one bet in a big pot on the river

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
you can safely fold to a raise on this board, so by bet/folding you gain 1-2 bets when ahead and lose 1 when behind. if you check/call you might not get any bets when you have the best hand, and still lose the same one bet when you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not all ONLY about gaining more bets when I'm ahead and losing less when I'm behind. It's about the chance of getting pushed off the best hand and losing a huge pot. The bet/fold line is a good line, but dangerous when misapplied. I'm willing to sacrifice a little river value once in a while in order to not cost myself the pot.

[wheelz]

well, i tried. really though, moderately aggressive 5/10 6-max players aren't bluffraising the river here on a K6789 board in a multiway pot. you're just not going to see a worse hand. i know you really want to see a showdown here, but i really think that if a non-unknown is capable of bluffraising the river in a spot this bad/obvious (let alone doing it PERIOD,) you'd know about it already.

this is in fact a perfect situation to bet/fold, it's not misapplying the concept at all.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
well, i tried. really though, moderately aggressive 5/10 6-max players aren't bluffraising the river here on a K6789 board in a multiway pot. you're just not going to see a worse hand. i know you really want to see a showdown here, but i really think that if a non-unknown is capable of bluffraising the river in a spot this bad/obvious (let alone doing it PERIOD,) you'd know about it already.

[/ QUOTE ]
It happens now and then when you least expect it. You need to remember that the bet-fold gains only a fraction of a BB of EV compared to checkcalling. Say 1/4 BB just to have a number.

Compare that 1/4 BB gain with the roughly 10 BB you stand to lose from having the pot stolen and you see the true odds you are getting on this play.

I'm not saying that the bet-fold is wrong this time. Actually I'm OK with it. But I think many players underestimate the risk they are running when they use this play. It's a whole pot versus the small fraction of a bet of EV they are trying to squeeze out by betting a dicey hand.

[wheelz]

yeah, of course i can't claim a bluff raise here happens never... every time you use a bet/fold line you run the risk of folding a winner. it happens, people play weird sometimes. i don't think it happens often enough for there to be any concern with it in this situation though. sure bluff raising happens, but not as much as i think most people expect. i don't think it's overly tough to fold to a raise here.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think it's overly tough to fold to a raise here.

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What are thoughts without Button cold-calling 2 on the river here?

[wheelz]

i let it go even without button calling, although that certainly makes it closer. i don't play 5/10 6-max but i just don't think you're getting raised by a worse hand there often enough. it sounds like the button doesn't even need a better hand than you to call anyways.

[kidcolin]

Also, you don't actually lose 10BB when you get bluffed out, unless you're folding everytime and he bluffs 100% of the time. If the chance of him bluffing is less than what the pot is offering, you stand to lose money calling. If the chances are slightly higher, and you fold and surrender the pot, it's not a -10BB EV play.. it's a slightly -EV play. I'm explaining this crappily, but that's how it works.