Raise pocket 9's in EP?

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Better to win little than lose big.


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This is ridiculous. If 80% of the time I win 3 BB and 10% of the time I win 25 BB which is better?

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WTFBBQ, Jason? You are better than this, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you misread/didn't read my posts. This sentence has a specific context.

OP was lamenting the possibility of raising with 99, getting it short handed, then winning, as opposed to raising 99, getting many opponents, and winning. I'm simply advising one to be happy winning a modest pot here. Disagree?

[MJL]

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Careful, that's not what I said. If my goal is 5 callers, then I limp. But, if I believe that my raise will get 5 callers, then I will do so because whether limping or raising, geting 5 callers while holding 99 is +EV. I am drawing to a set in this case.

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I reread your post as requested. Is 99 +EV here?

Assume you will need a set to win; the odds of flopping one are ~7:1. but when you get the set, you will usually win so even though you are not getting 7 opponents, one of the 5 should catch a good enough second place hand that will pay you off in later rounds, thereby giving you sufficient implied odds. So it's +EV

Additionally, you can win without flopping a set.

[MJL]

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Additionally, you can win without flopping a set.

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Not often in a multipot.

Thank you for your thoughts.

I agree; that's why I left it outside the explanation of why I thought it was +EV. The situation does arrive, though, such as a rag flop especially when you have the odds to stick around for a turn card.

ok i did not state it clearly i guess... my question is:

why would you want to raise if you believe your raise will get 5 callers? if you believe you're getting callers behind you, then ur raising for value. i agree that raising is +EV play also but isn't limping the better play?

if you limp (when you believe you'll get 5 callers behind you):
1. you can mask your set when you do hit it.
2. you save money if you dont. as 99 do not play well against 5 cold callers.

i generally do NOT want to draw to a set... hence my raise. i raise to knock the weak overcards out which would increase the 99's showdown value. am i mistaken?

I have a hypotheses; In a loose game where you can expect 3-5 CC'ers, I think raising loses money unless you play extremely well post flop

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I have a hypotheses; In a loose game where you can expect 3-5 CC'ers, I think raising loses money unless you play extremely well post flop

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i would think it still makes money. just not as much as limping.

[7stud]

I'm currently reading "Small Stakes Hold'em"(Miller, Sklansky, Malmuth), and the authors seem to struggle with your question too. In their discussion of medium pairs(99, 88, and 77), the authors say,

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From early position you should usually limp in.(p.66)

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They say you either want to play against 2 or 3 players or 5 or more players. Against 2 or 3 players an unimproved pair can win. Against 5 or more players, you are hopping to hit a set and win a big pot. It's approximately 7:1 against hitting a set on the flop, so you have to have enough players to be able to extract more than 7 times your preflop call when you make your set. They recommend only raising with medium pairs when you are in late position and there is exactly one limper ahead of you.

However, in their preflop charts where they recommend the proper action, the author's say to raise with 99 in middle or late postion in a tight game(p. 80) and raise with 99 in early position in a loose game(p. 82).

[7stud]

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why would you want to raise if you believe your raise will get 5 callers?

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As far as I can tell, you wouldn't. Not only do you lose more money when you don't hit a set, but since you also need more than a 7:1 payoff when you do hit a set, raising means you need to extract more bets from your opponents to reach that hurdle. If you call, say, $3 and get 5 other callers, you still need 3 additional $3 bets to make the hand profitable($3 to 5x$3 + 3x$3 = $3 to $24 = 1:8). If you raise to $6 and get 5 callers, then you need 6 additional $3 bets to make the hand profitable($6 to 5x$6 + 6x$3 = $6 to $48 = 1:8).