Bet/fold or check/fold

[Lmn55d]

Villain is 49/1.6/.8 after 150 hands with 40 WTSD. I was torn between bet/fold and check/fold. Remember he probably checks behinds with a lot of pocket pairs (it seems that way from his stats at least). He's calling with any ace.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

On the surface, bet/folding looks better because folding to a river raise is super easy. That doesn't mean it's better than check/fold. When you're called, there are way too many more hands that beat you. You lose to AQ, A3, A4, 22-QQ and only beat A6-AT when called. Betting is definitely worse than checking here.

The real question is does checking warrant a call? It looks like this guy will only bet monsters, big kings or busted flush draws that didn't pair. He doesn't have a monster that didn't raise the turn too often, so that only leaves A5 and 33 for huge hands on the river.

Although it's close, I'd lean towards c/f over c/c here.

[TStoneMBD]

i think you gain much more value in valuebetting vs ace high than checkcalling vs pairs. i dont think many pairs are checking behind and hell have ace high quite a bit

[Spicymoose]

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i think you gain much more value in valuebetting vs ace high than checkcalling vs pairs. i dont think many pairs are checking behind and hell have ace high quite a bit

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But will he bet his ace high? Or non pair hand?

[TStoneMBD]

i took that into account as well, but didnt mention it. but that is a good point.

i originally wrote that alot of bad players know enough to bet their pocket pairs after you check the river knowing you have ace high. some players are so bad that theyll bet any holding not knowing why they are betting, they just think they should bet since you checked. then i decided not to add that since id be arguing against myself. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]