$EV of limp-calling with AA on the bubble?

[handsome]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter

Button (t30)
SB (t3195)
Hero (t4290)
UTG (t2485)

Preflop: Hero is BB with X, X.
UTG calls, Button folds, SB folds, Hero pushes.

UTG has AA. According to SNGPT, both a fold and a push are +EV:
$EV Fold $151.70
$EV Push $156.63

Let's say you're UTG. You know that Hero will push 100% with any two if you limp and only call with top 5%, do you limp-call or just push?

I'm pretty sure limp-calling is bad, but I'm curious as to what the $EV of it is. I don't think there's a way to find out by inputting the situation in SNGPT, but if there is, please let me know. Or if anyone cares to do the math .. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

And sorry for the identity confusion.

[The Yugoslavian]

Just do the math YOUNG MAN...

Yugoslav

[handsome]

I would if I knew how ICM worked.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 85.2037 % 84.93% 00.27% { AA }
Hand 2: 14.7963 % 14.52% 00.27% { random }

$EV Win: 85.2037% / ($??)
$EV Lose: 14.7963% / $0

eastbay??

[Mr_J]

sngpt rates limp calling as a better option, but I had to use a stack of 150 for shortie. I'm not sure how much of a difference this makes, but obivously with just 30 he has to race a few more times before he's got a stack to work with.

I don't like pushing here. All you will be doing is picking up with blinds really. I think minraising is ok here. It makes you look weak, but charges them slightly more to enter the pot. Also gives them the chance to lose some chips postflop. A limp/minraise could easily see a reraise from an aggressive player.

[handsome]

Thanks to Yugo I am now informed about ICM calculations. Anyway, I made a surprising discovery.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 85.2037 % 84.93% 00.27% { AA }
Hand 2: 14.7963 % 14.52% 00.27% { random }

$EV Win: 85.2037% / $192.55
$EV Lose: 14.7963% / $0

UTG limp-calling = $164.06, if Hero will always push. That is significantly more valuable than folding (obviously) or pushing. I didn't expect that.

Anyway wow. I certainly learned something new today. Mr_J's reply was quite useful and I will probably be minraising in this type of situation (AA only, KK is probably a different story..)