wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k

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however, if J is not a spade, then it is likely that your opponent has AJs, which gave him a flush draw plus top pair, then i would be more worried about a flush on the turn.

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this is EXACTLY what i was thinking (i think you're the first one to mention it)-- do we know if the J on the board was a spade???

[durron597]

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however, if J is not a spade, then it is likely that your opponent has AJs, which gave him a flush draw plus top pair, then i would be more worried about a flush on the turn.

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this is EXACTLY what i was thinking (i think you're the first one to mention it)-- do we know if the J on the board was a spade???

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No, the 5 was red.

[DeadMoneyOC]

"Bax reraises to 9k"

HAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[SossMan]

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Keep in mind, he's only been all-in once, and that was with the nuts. So, does that guy push AA/QQ on the turn here...or call? Either way we're going against something we've seen.

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But clearly we've seen him NOT do something that we have to give him credit for doing this time for our read to be right. Plus 2.5 only needing 4. I'm leaning more towards a call here, but I certainly wouldn't hate a fold.

The bigger thing is the nasty flop 3bet with these stack sizes. I honestly don't think that there could have been a worse play at that point in the hand besides mucking.

[PickyTooth]

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Keep in mind, he's only been all-in once, and that was with the nuts. So, does that guy push AA/QQ on the turn here...or call? Either way we're going against something we've seen.

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But clearly we've seen him NOT do something that we have to give him credit for doing this time for our read to be right. Plus 2.5 only needing 4. I'm leaning more towards a call here, but I certainly wouldn't hate a fold.

The bigger thing is the nasty flop 3bet with these stack sizes. I honestly don't think that there could have been a worse play at that point in the hand besides mucking.

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How about leading out the turn like that .

The 2 ways I would play it, would be either push on the flop after being raised (because I could push with some kind of draw in this spot other times)

or call the flop raise and check raise all in any non scary turn card. Given the scary card I try to get a cheap showdown.

[stokken]

Now I havent and proberbly wont play these stakes until I have potency problems(which is a looong time ahead), but a few things I consider relevant here are.

The player seems timid-not the one to overplay his draws.
It is unclear how bax is percieved by his opponent.
We have not a read on his PF standards, but it is likely to draw a conclusion based on his postflopp play.

1. question Would a player like this call a pf raiser from ep with AJ? Unless bax comes of as anything I dont believe him to be I cant see why a timid player would want to either be dominated or fighting what he must think is a premium pair.

I would put him on PP
Considering his image I think if he had AA he might just pop it up pf . KK-22 is much more likely IMO. Although a few drawing hands shouldnt be left out I wheigh more towards pp

The next question is what he thinks he can move bax of with his raise postflopp?

I can see AA-QQ doing this. JJ if very scared of the flush draw, thinking bax could be on AK-AQs. But it is not consistent with the turn play. 55 could certainly do it to charge an assumed high PP in bax. This is more consistent with the turn play?

Given that the play seems to weird for a JJ hand I lean towards 55 or AA-KK, distant QQ with spade. Trusting the read on him not going nuts on a flopp with a draw I cant bring my self to fold this. Even though it is deep stack.
The weak reraise from bax could also encourage this action. Now if intentional it is great as one can induce overly aggressive play in opponent. But I go broke with this hand if beat, though I think it unlikely I call.

And on flopp I would just call. I believe I am ahead, a spade would scare him too. I would consider a semistrong bet on the turn, but lean towards rope a dope and let him do the betting, I think he is the one threading the fog of war.And if he has the flush QTs???? Might be consistent with this play? Damn I hate to second guess myself. Nah I think him to passive and go with first thought

But what do I know Stokken

Well, good luck to him anyway...he is still alive with 102k in chips.

sheets

[bugstud]

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Well, good luck to him anyway...he is still alive with 102k in chips.

sheets

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he defended his play by saying he thought his range was a bunch of Jx, bottom set and combo draw hands. he never ever ever raised NFD...meh I still hate it.

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The flop came 5 9 J with 2 spades Bax bets 1500, the guy raises to 4500 , Bax reraises to 9k

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??????

In one breath, you are saying this guys has only showed down the nuts. In the other you suggesting Bax put him on a range of hands consisting of bottom set, Jx's, and draws. What about a set of jacks, why was that not considered?

I will say that Bax's observation that he had not played the nut flush draw like this in five previous opportunities is crucial to his decision here.

[bugstud]

well, he also had reraised huge with QQ/JJ and shown it before, so he's that kinda guy? who knows.