A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea

[elindauer]

Hi Deranged,

Nice post. My off-the-top-of-my-head feeling is that you have 40% equity. My plan is to play the flop and turn hard, generally checking behind on the river UI.

If the turn is a dimond, I'll probably check behind planning to call a river bet or bet it myself if checked to. If the turn is a ten, I'll get aggressive. If the turn is an ace, I may take a free card if offered.

-Eric

[damaniac]

Does anyone recall a similar hand from HPFAP or TOP or some 2+2 book? I seem to recall an instance but can't find it.

[hobbsmann]

I'd guess we have somewhere in the 40-45% equity, but since it's going to be hard to tell when we are ahead or when we are drawing I think I would play the hand we the intention of making sure at least one bet goes in on every street (calling or betting if checked to). I also would only raise a T or the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
Will,

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE the idea of ever possibly getting three-bet on the turn. It makes me hurl just thinking about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really have this reaction. First off, I think our turn raise gets three-bet really rarely. Obviously getting three-bet is lame, but we'll have outs plenty of the time. Even if he has a made flush, the ultimate WCS, the flop-checkraise indicates that it's probably a low flush, and diamonds might make us good. We also have plenty of outs against sets and two pair, and it is very easy to fold the river UI...it's not like a guy you describe as "neutral postflop" is going to three-bet the turn AND lead the river with the ace of diamonds after we've shown so much strength.

So that's the bad. On the other hand, the turn raise does so many good things. A portion of the time we will be well ahead and extracting value. Another portion of the time, we will be making a fairly strong semi-bluff/free showdown play. It's going to be really rare that villain's holding is strong enough to three-bet. And if the turn is a non-diamond ace or king, then a raise will really put Qx to the test.

There's too much good stuff going on in these either/or situations to not raise.

Will

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
Various turn cards make for very interesting changes in Hero's equity. The old non-adjusted equity was 57%. I think it would be fun for people to match the following Turn cards with Hero's new equity (non-adjusted):

1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A. 75%
B. 44%
C. 59%
D. 52%
E. 59%



[/ QUOTE ]

Answers below are in white:

<font color="white">
1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 75%
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 59%
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 52%
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 59%
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 44%


The 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]: The important thing to realize here is that most turns will NOT drastically effect Hero's equity. If the turn is a non-diamond blank, we are still ahead of nines, still ahead of flush draws, and still behind queens. If the turn is a diamond blank, we pull ahead of queens, but fall behind the flush draws. In either case, we still find ourselves at about 50/50. Either/or [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

The 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is not quite as blankish since it completes straight and two pair draws that pull our opponents ahead. It also gives us a gutshot. Overall our equity is lowered a bit, but not much.

Finally, the aces. The A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a bad card for Hero because many of the AdX hands just pulled ahead and the queens are still ahead. 9Xd is pretty much all we are still ahead of.

It might seem like the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would be a bad card, but in fact it is THE VERY BEST NON-TEN CARD that could fall. Why? Because it eliminates so many of villain's flush draws (making it more likely he has a queen) while giving Hero a flush. This, I think, is a VERY important idea (adjusting our opponent's range)... and I would raise the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. </font>

[W. Deranged]

Jake,

I'll give it a shot.

1. A

The A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would seem to definitely be the best of those four cards. We have sucked out on any better pair hand. Because it's the A, it means villain can't have it and we are only worry about two possible better flushes instead of three.

2. C (or E)

A small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is good for us but not as good as a big [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], since it's more likely that villain has a bigger draw he just hit.

3. E (or C)

This is a decent card for us because it gives us extra outs. JT isn't that likely for villain anyway, and the value of the extra outs are more valuable to us than that card is to villain on average.

4. D

A total blank isn't that good for us. While it is unlikely to make villains hand better, it means our hand doesn't improve. We basically stay at about where we were at against villain roughly, which was in the mid-50s.

5. B

This seems to be very clearly the worst card we could hit. Any A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw has just improved to beat us, and we're drawing near dead against them now. Our hand doesn't improve against any of the hands we're drawing against, while several of villain's hands do improve against ours.

Am I right? I promise I did this without looking...

[W. Deranged]

Aww [censored].