leakcheck hand

[Guruman]

A hand played by someone else here.

Party 2/4, table full lof loose passive fish that like to play a single big card if its suited, any pp, etc.

Two limpers and hero holds K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="red">hero raises</font> a strong hand in this situation for value. Button coldcalls, big blind calls, and both limpers call.

flop is T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bb checks, limper 1 checks, <font color="red">limper 2 bets, hero raises</font> in order to increase his chances of winning a now large pot. Raising may clean up outs by getting us HU, puts pressure on the flop bettor, and gives us a bluffing opportunity on the turn.

two folds and limper 2 calls.

turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villain checks, <font color="red">hero bets</font>. Villain may have already given up, and if he calls then we still have outs to improve. villain calls.

river:J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villain checks, <font color="red">hero bets</font> for value with what is probably the best hand.

comments on all streets appreciated.

[Duerig]

Unless you have a ridiculously good image, I don't like the turn bet. I can't imagine picking up the pot here often enough for it to be profitable.

[shark6]

Go for the free card on the turn, you'll need it to win the hand.

[damaniac]

Unless the bettor has a propensity to fold, I don't like the turn bet and I really don't like the flop raise. Unless there's some chance we have the best hand (and I don't think there is) I don't think putting in an extra bet is worth it to "clean up outs". You need them to fold hands like AJ or K5 or Qx to clean up outs, and have the flop bettor not have you crushed (so something like AT), and not get three-bet. The biggest problem there is that most of the time the players behind you just don't have those hands, and you're putting in an extra bet with an equity deficit.

[UCLAseetoK]

Has someone done or can document the math for the free card play here? I've been making this raise with the overs/inside SD/ backdoor flush draw occasionaly, and I wonder to myself often if its worth it.... that is, worth it if we assume I don't get 3 bet on flop or donked into on turn. If guy donks into me on river when I have made hand from free card play, that would be another area of mathematical interest.

[poker1O1]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you have a ridiculously good image, I don't like the turn bet. I can't imagine picking up the pot here often enough for it to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

[bobhalford]

I think I'd like it more if your read on the flop bettor is that he's the type to bet draws aggressively, and is known to fold decent hands when faced with aggression. If the bettor has something like QJ, you have him beat, and can fold out medium pairs and hands like Q9, A5, Ax, etc. When you continue with a semibluff on the turn you give him a chance to fold if he has something like JT or T8.

But as a loose passive player, he will call down with his pair and your semibluff attempts will not work out for you.

By raising the flop, you lose equity when you put in extra bets with a hand that is behind and will not gain you much when you hit a K (minus the times the bettor has KT/K9), Q, or a J (another tainted out card).

In this hand, you can call the flop and see if the limpers call. If a Q comes, you can raise the turn, or even wait until the river if you think you will make more money that way.

[Guruman]

FWIW, I don't ususally make this flop raise and this turn bet. I tend to just do one or the other.

This hand was played by a noted poker authority (see second hand listed), and is used as an example of places where we are leaking money.

My aggression's all messed up these days though, so I couldn't figure out if I'm nuts or if he is. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[damaniac]

The thing with that hand is that there is some chance that his hand is best when he raises the flop (or rather, better than the bettor's). It needn't be most of the time, or even necessarily a majority of the time. But generally speaking, you shouldn't be raising overcards very often if you think the bettor is already ahead of you. The value of buying outs/knocking out players is slim when compared to putting in an extra bet while you have an equity deficit (and run the risk of a 3-bet).

[WillMagic]

Wow, guys. The flop raise is absolutely automatic. The pot is big, and we need to maximize our chances of winning it.

On the turn...there is more room for debate, but I still feel that this is a clear bet. The pot is big, there's only one opponent, and villain will fold some better hands, and if we get called, no biggie, we have a bunch of outs.

Also, betting makes it really unlikely that we'll lose the pot to QJ or J8. Both of these hands are in our opponent's range. If we check the turn, our opponent will bluff the river with those hands, and we will probably fold. But by leading out on the turn, we continue to represent strength, and many times our opponent will just call and check the river, giving us some extra wins when king-high is the best hand.

Will