This is an ace every single time

[Spicymoose]

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With nothing solid upon which to base the assumptions, and with the number of variables at play, penciling this out is not a productive use of time.

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Sorry, I had to respond one more time for this. We do have something solid to base our assumptions on. It is the same things we base our "how good are we on the river" assumption on. Sure, we can't be perfectly accurate, but we can try to do as best we can.

As for the "not a productive use of our time", it may not be for you, but I for one have way too much free time, and considering this will probably take less than half an hour (probably less than 10 minutes, but I dunno), it doesn't really phase me. If the results turn out something different then expected, this could increase your winrate by .05 BB/100, which, if you are playing 4 tables of $10/20, means an extra $3.6 every hour you play. If you are playng 20 hours a week, after 1 month, we have made $288 on our initial half hour of investment (if it even is half an hour, I think it is probably less). After that, it even more money as we play.

Sure, our results may end up proving nothing, or being too complicated to even come close to the right answer. But I think if we start doing this often enough, we will stumble upon some pretty interesting things that are a bit counter-intuitive, and we will increase our winrates by enough to have a substantial reward for the effort.

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Doesn't it all work together?

Very simply put, a guy who's playing for 30 years and never uses math will have a much more accurate guess than a math geek who's been playing for 3 months.

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No [censored] way his memory is that perfect he can remember which is the best. Ofc he counts his outs, checks the pot, think a little about villains range and makes a decision. Its not a gut feeling. He uses math. Ofc he takes in this information extremely quick but its not a gut feeling.

[Catt]

We will have to agree to disagree on the utility of the exercise.

[sthief09]

this certainly could be spades, an 8, a deuce, or a pocket pair. very niec board to bluff on considering you checked through the turn

[Drontier]

when i first read this hand, i thought this was insanity. then i realized you really aren't good much if at all. the only hands i see him have that don't have an ace are (if hes aggro enough to raise) K8 Q8 J8 98 T8, (K8 and Q8 beat u btw). I think a plain 8 check calls this, knowing he cant get a better hand to fold ever(btw i think pp does the same). You do beat some randomass holdings that decided to call the flop with T9 high. But this has to be severely discounted even in HU situations. (and if u have reads this can be completely eliminated). So what hands can he have here. I see QJ, Kx, and the rare times he has spades. I have no idea how often you are good here, but i want to say worse than 1 in 4.

[poker1O1]

I think you would get c/r'd on the flop if he had a flush draw on a pocket pair, trying to push you off your hand. Hence, with just the smooth call and he's not trying to get you off your hand, i think an Ace here is very likely. Still, i call the river, sad day.