Live 10/20 Question

[jt1]

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As for you pocket threes - sometimes calling 2 with a pp is good poker, sometimes it is bad.


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Pocket threes in this spot is the easiest call ever. This 79s is closer.

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I realize you're trying to slap me for being a cock and I probably deserve it, but the poster never specified what situation his pocket 3's faced.




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I play in these weak passive games live all the time, and I'm not at all against seeing flops against large fields with these speculative hands. But I just can't see a solid argument for profitability here. If you can, I'd love to see it.

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I should know these numbers already, but I don't and I don't have my cheat sheet with me. However, I believe that a 1 gapper suited is a 5-1 dog to hit his draw or better. Hero is getting 7.6-1 if bb folds.

If he misses his flush draw or better then he is out 1.5 sb only. This is a loose passive game

If hero does flop a draw then is only a 2-1 dog to complete it. At that point, he'll be putting in 1.5 more bets to win probably 4.5 bb. And this is a conservative estimate. If hero hits his draw and bets out, button may raise and hero is ecstatic. Of course, hero may find himself trapped in a raising war, but the OP already indicated that this is unlikely.

[jt1]

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That it is wise in a limit game to pay 2 bets with 33?


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If the OP had 33 instead of 79s this is the easiest call ever. Why? Hero is getting about 8-1 to hit his set. The set will come about 1/9 times (i think) Hero will get plenty of action after he hits. Hero has redraws to a boat should he get outdrawn on the turn.

The question you need to be asking is "will i get about 11 or 10X the money i'm putting in if i hit?"

You figure this out by seeing how much is already in the pot.
Who you're playing against (their betting behaviors)
your position, absolute and relative


BTW, you need more than 8x the money your putting in 'cause you will get outdrawn from time to time.

[MJL]

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I should know these numbers already, but I don't and I don't have my cheat sheet with me. However, I believe that a 1 gapper suited is a 5-1 dog to hit his flush or better. Hero is getting 7.6-1 if bb folds.

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What is it if he has AK,KQ,AQ,AJ of hearts? or any over pair with a heart and hit. If raiser or the other players don't have any hearts will you get implied odds? Unlikely from anyone who can't beat a 9 high flush. The straight has good implied odds.

I don't want to hijack the thread but the 33 was 10/20 live and UTG raised, folded to me in LP. Slightly loose table but not real bad players.

[jt1]

First off, I mis-spoke. I meant 5-1 to catch his draw, not his flush. I've edited the original post

Secondly, if button has a better heart draw then hero is SOL. Sets aren't beat by higher sets very often and flushes don't get beat by better flushes very often. The reverse implied of a small suited connector will always be greater than a small pp but in this situation the reverse implied is limited to getting the draw and not hitting and getting beat by a better flush. Still not enough to fold.

Your hand was a good fold.


EDIT: In the interest of being as specific as possible: The odds of villian having AKh, AQh, AJh, or KQh, or KJh are 5/66. And I'd say that either 1) limiting villian to just 66 possible raising hands is too conservative or 2)saying that at a loose passive table both KQh and KJh would raise is too liberal. Whichever one it is, that ratio is probably too generous. The real problem comes from villian having the Ace of hearts and subject to drawing out on you if you hit a flush on the turn. But, though, a greater threat, it's won't ruin your expected value.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

If I was fairly certain (>80%) that there would not be a raise from the BB or the limpers, I would call here. Given OP's read on the table -- and assuming that BB is not overly aggressive from the BB -- I would call. The math is laid out in other posts. I would emphasize, however that calling here is more about the future than the current pot odds. Also, these hands (compared to the two-big-card hands) are far easier to get away from when you only get a small piece of the flop.

[Forbillz]

Let me pose another question: say I call, all call. We have 14small bets. Flop comes Ks - 6h - 8h.

Considering I now have 15 outs twice, I'd lead out, hoping to trap people before the pre-flop raiser can raise, correct? At this point, I'm jamming this pot. If the raiser does raise, I 3-bet, as I doubt anyone folds anyways.

Is that right, or am I crazy?

[jt1]

if you flop any oesd or fd then you try to get as many bets in as possible assuming at least 2 players are still around

if its HU then you're more careful but with an oeStraight Flush draw then you jam, even HU.