Pot size quicksand.

MJL · #1 11-26-2005, 09:39 AM

Had to play a very loose passive $3/$6 table. I was killing the table but this one got me confused. Didn't know what to do on the turn. My instinct was fold. All players are subpar but CO has had shown down winners.

I'm LP A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I raise, CO and button, blinds and limpers call. 8 to flop. Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. EP bets all call to me I raise all call. Turn 16BB 8 players. Turn is a blank and it’s checked to me. Some one has to have a J so I will find out now who it is. I bet CO raises (certainly a J or better), button (total fish who could have anything) calls, SB folds, BB 3bets (definately the other J or better), fold to me.

Its 24BB and 2 for me to call. I know I’m against at least one player with a jack but looks like two. Some one could have made a full house. I need to spike and A. It’s a real long shot and the pot is not offering the correct odds but I know I will get action if I hit. Problem is it is likely to get capped by CO if I call.

Now I have 2 outs (if they are still live and if I’m not against quads, which I really doubt) so I need pot odds of 22/1 but to call this bet would be 12/1. The implied odds are very strong. I know I will get a lot of action if I do hit. My choices are:

1. I fold
2. I call its called around 28BB
3. I call and it’s capped 32BB

So the questions are:

1. Do I fold or call. Of course if capped on turn I will have to call that bet too.

2. If I call the turn and the river misses me do I fold of pay off another bet because the pot is 31 to 35 BB?

Nick C · #2 11-26-2005, 09:51 AM

It looks like a fold to me. BB's check/3-bet is pretty scary, and it looks like CO probably also has you beat. And you don't really have the odds to chase here, even including your implied odds.

toss · #3 11-26-2005, 10:04 AM

Do you really think you can make 12 Bets on the river if you call? Whats worse is that it can be capped behind you and make it even harder.