i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,

Whether I am a billionaire or in my current financial status (dirt poor), if I have the option of winning $11,000 nearly 100% of the time vs. MAYBE picking up AA twice in row and doubling my chips twice, I'll take the $11,000. AA might potentially win me more, but just by folding I win money. If the short stack was at M=2 or something though, it's a different story. 2 antes is so ridiculously short stacked that it's not even a close decision for me whether to wait or not.

-Gross

[SossMan]

I am playing one hand in this spot and it aint JJ.

[HoldEmKillah]

wtf. Seriously, wtf? Whoever above me said fold so you can sneak into the money...that's soooooo weak. Hidiously so.

So just take the 11g's and surrender? Or push, hope to get only the blinds but if you get called you have more than doubled your stack and are one pot away from being right back in the thick of things.

Guys, the payout structure is flat as a board. You need chips NOW to get to the real money. $11,000? That's chump change in this tourny and there are only 120 players left.

Doing anything aside from pushing is Weeeaakkkk.

HEK

btw sheets...congrats on 13th. Didn't we agree as part of the chop that I get 10% [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I didn't realize 1st was worth $2mil and 2nd was $1mil.

Thinking.......................................... ....

Ok, it's an easy push.

-Gross

[Pat Southern]

Place Amount
1 $2,142,000
2 $1,035,000
3 $759,000
4 $483,000
5 $345,000
6 $276,000
7 $207,000
8 $172,800
9 $138,000
10 $117,300
11 $103,500
12 $96,600
13 $89,700
14 $82,800
15 $75,900
16 $69,000
17 $62,100
18 $55,200
19 $48,300
20 $41,300
21-25 $34,500
26-30 $27,600
31-35 $20,700
36-40 $17,200
41-50 $14,000
51-70 $12,000
71-120 $11,000

[Melchiades]

Problem is even if you double up now, and you double up a couple of more times you're still below average. So you need to double up three times after this to have an above average stack, and even then it's not at all given that you will get more than the 11k.

Cut the macho [censored] with "playing for first", and start making the play that will earn you the most money. This forum has some serious hang up with "I'm playing for first, not to get ITM". Sometimes playing to get in the money is the only right thing to do.

[Lurshy]

I bet out 3K hoping to take it down preflop. If someone comes over-the-top, you still have options. Against tight big stacks, you can fold and still have enough to get through the blinds and limp into the money. Of course you can also decide to gamble...

I know most people cringe at the thought of putting in 1/3 stack and then having to fold, but folding would be read dependent, and you do have a legit shot at taking it down...

[Melchiades]

I haven't played on of these, but I would imagine that you have a bout 0% chance of not being called or reraised. Everyone else knows we are on the bubble as well, and that there is a shortie with 2xante.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]

Cut the macho [censored] with "playing for first", and start making the play that will earn you the most money. This forum has some serious hang up with "I'm playing for first, not to get ITM". Sometimes playing to get in the money is the only right thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said that I'm solely playing for first, but when the payout for squeeking into the money is 1.1 buyins, its pretty crazy to fold when you have JJ UTG. Stop letting the fact that its 11k cloud your judgement. Knock off 2 or 3 zeros from all the payouts/buyin and then tell me what you think the best option is.

[Melchiades]

I knock out all the zeros and still fold. It is all about making the most +EV decision. And here it is a fold. Stop looking at the top payouts, you are not getting there anyway. Double up here and you still have a microstack. If doubling up here put me back in the middle of the field it would be an entirely different matter. But doubling up here really doesn't improve my situation all that much.

Look at sirios latest post.