Being an "F*$%! IDIOT" with 87s

[W. Deranged]

So a couple more thoughts on the turn:

1. My bet really only "costs" about 2/3 of a bet since I have 8ish outs here.

2. Villain only needs to fold his share of the pot when he has something like TT (which is 5-5.5 bb or whatever) like 10-14% of the time or something for the bet to be profitable in that situation.

3. Villain's share of the pot with KQ or something is a little less than 1 bb, so he needs to fold only a little less than half the time with that hand for it to be profitable in that scenario.

So we could conceivably come up with a model where we look at the profit we might get in those situations versus the cost when we get called or check-raised. It's not obvious to me that that number will be -EV.

[shant]

I was initially into checking the turn, but one thing that should be discussed is if you check the turn and miss you are going to have to call a bet from the tricky player. So, maybe it is better to put the bet in when you're more likely ahead and have some fold equity and might not want to give him the free card.

Again, I cannot see how a raise on the flop is standard. I like this play every once in a while to switch up your play and whatnot, but it has to be -EV to do this consistently.

[shant]

I think becuase he has middle pair + backdoor straight + backdoor flush + the 2-pair outs are clean. So, he's giving himself 8 outs against a player he feels is loose with his preflop standards. He may have the best hand, and he has enough outs to see the turn, and the LAGgy guy just gave him the oppurtunity to try and thin the field. Since he's going to see the turn, raising is probably better than calling. Also, the pot is big and worth fighting for.

I think it's all those factors that make this standard this time, but not everytime you have middle pair.

[Baloosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think becuase he has middle pair + backdoor straight + backdoor flush + the 2-pair outs are clean. So, he's giving himself 8 outs against a player he feels is loose with his preflop standards. He may have the best hand, and he has enough outs to see the turn, and the LAGgy guy just gave him the oppurtunity to try and thin the field. Since he's going to see the turn, raising is probably better than calling. Also, the pot is big and worth fighting for.

I think it's all those factors that make this standard this time, but not everytime you have middle pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely. In this particular case, a raise is really the only way to play this flop.