Taking the coin-flip to get a monster stack?

[Sam T.]

I played this hand in the Stars $3-rebuy, and I think I know the right decision, but thought I should get other perspectives.

We're into the money at this point; I think 220 paid, and there are maybe 140 left. I have an above average stack of ~90k, but the blinds are getting high at 3k/6k plus antes, so nobody is particularly tall at this point.

Villain in this hand is UTG, and has t70k. Table has been very tight, with most PF raises taking down the pots. Occasionally a shorty will push and get called, but that's about it for flops.

The hand is pretty simple: Villain open pushes, and it's folded to Hero in the BB with JJ.

Here is my thinking on his hand:
-Not AA. Yes he's approaching 10BB, but I have to think he would make a smaller raise here, and hope for some business.
-Maybe KK. But again, this is a big enough hand I can't see many players betting like they don't want a flop.
-AK-AJ, QQ-88. Now we're getting somewhere. Good hands, but hate to be OOP when the flop misses their unpaired broadway, or overcards to their pocket pair.

If I win, I'm the new chip leader, and would have nearly twice the stack of the rest of my table. This would be a nice position to be in.

Alternately, I can fold, and continue to steal. I've been doing it a lot lately.

Your thougts?

Sam

[dmk]

Pretty easy call. Against TT+,AJ+ you have 50% equity. Against 88+,AJ+ you are 55%. Take out AA and you're at 58%, take out KK and its 61%. So even against a tight range of TT+/AJ+, you're a coinflip w/ some dead $ already in there. Gotta call.

[Exitonly]

definitely call. you're better than a coinflip vs this range. i didnt do the pokerstove, but i'd guess 60%? so yea. i call

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]

-Maybe KK. But again, this is a big enough hand I can't see many players betting like they don't want a flop.
-AK-AJ, QQ-88. Now we're getting somewhere. Good hands, but hate to be OOP when the flop misses their unpaired broadway, or overcards to their pocket pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you're trying to say at the end here, if you're getting it AI pf, what does position have to do with anything?

In any case, if this is the range you put him on, it's an easy call.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

-Maybe KK. But again, this is a big enough hand I can't see many players betting like they don't want a flop.
-AK-AJ, QQ-88. Now we're getting somewhere. Good hands, but hate to be OOP when the flop misses their unpaired broadway, or overcards to their pocket pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you're trying to say at the end here, if you're getting it AI pf, what does position have to do with anything?

In any case, if this is the range you put him on, it's an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

he means villian would push w/ them because if villian sees a flop he wouldn't want to be OOP.

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]

he means villian would push w/ them because if villian sees a flop he wouldn't want to be OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, gotcha, sorry about the confusion.

I was faced with a similar situaton late in a MTT recently, though I had the other half of the coinflip. AKo, PF raise to 4x blinds. Slightly smaller stack who had been trying to buy a lot of blinds goes all in. I put him on 99-QQ, slight chance of KK or AA, AJ+, with a better than average chance of a bluff since he'd been caught bluffing big at pots a few times. I made the call for most of my stack getting about 2:1, knowing that a win would make me a big stack and significantly increase my odds of going deep as opposed to just finishing in the money.

He had jacks. I made a straight to ace. He made quad jacks. Fun game, this poker.

I'd call here too. It's worth it to build up the monster stack, especially in your case where you're on the slightly plus side of the coinflip.

[whynot?]

if i was playing i'd put the range smaller

i agree dont think its aa or kk. think good chance its QQ or ak. lesser chance to see 8s thrugh js and aq. having said all that time is right to call - if you hit great position to make a run - heck have to make a move at some pt and this is perfect timing

[JustPlayingSmart]

Turbocall. You could easily have an overpair to him, and it's not as likely he has an overpair to you.

I had a situation recently that was similar, but not quite the same.

I had KQs in late position, folded to me. Had about 15bb's with 90 left (225 paid), and raised 3x the bb. SB called it, then BB who I had seen push with 67s against someones raise pushed at me. His stack covered my stack, there were 9bb's in the pot, plus my 12 and his 12, so I decided to go for it to try to get a monster stack. SB ended up calling too, so there was 45bb's in the pot (monster pot at this stage in the tourney) that could potentially go to me if I win.

Turned out BB had 22, and SB had 66. I ended up losing the hand to a river 2, but had I won it, I would have covered the table by a large sum, and could have stolen my way to the final table easily.

I figured since I was already in the money, and calling this would give me the top stack in the tourney, and folding it would give me a stack that would be ok, but not safe, I decided to gambool with it and ended up having a favorable result preflop.

Alot of times close decisions like this, I tend to go with the decision that will give me an advantage on future hands, and would have even taken an underdog position with this hand.