Seeing monsters or boxing clever?

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

It's just a question of whether we get a value from a raise -- or more clearly, if we're good here > 66% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see this 66% thing mentioned from time to time and I never understand it. Why does a value raise have to be with a hand that's ahead over two thirds of the time?

Guy.

[cartman]

He has AA. You "know" it, I "know" it, we all "know" it. But by my estimate there are about 15 BB in the pot after he bets the river. The question is whether "know" means more than 93.75% certain. It is a fact that people have an extremely difficult time accurately gauging low probability events. 1 in 10 feels like never just like 1 in 20, 1 in 30, or 1 in 50 does. I think Small Stakes Hold em says something along the lines that we can rarely be over 90% sure of anything in this game. I would throw up as soon as I saw the Ace on the river then call the bet. I think raising is out of question.

Cartman

[Nietzsche]

You made one giant mistake: Not choosing a bad beat table for this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I don't see any mistake in the way the hand was played though. I don't see him playing AK this way on the turn so I don't think you have a raise here. Fold is out of the question IMO.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You played it perfectly. I wish I would play it that way in your shoes but I'm sure I would raise the river.

Krishan

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I would play it that way in your shoes but I'm sure I would raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
After looking at the hand closely it is obviously not a raise but in the heat of the moment I probably raise 9 out of 10 times. Still have some way to go...