$55: BB Flops trips no kicker, flush draw comes on turn

[schwza]

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I think i would want to bet more then 75 on that flop i would go atleast 120. Anyone agree with betting more then 75 there.

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yeah, i'd probably bet 100.

[fnord_too]

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i think it's fine, expect you should check/fold the river. well, i could go either way on betting the flop too, but i think the river should definitely be a fold.

what's he going to have when he calls the flop? a flush draw, Ax, a PP like 88, or air. i don't think he has 2x utg unless maybe it's A2s.

when he checks the turn, it could still be any of these, so we don't gain much info.

when he bets the river, what could he have? he'd be dumb to bet 88 - the old "it's not a value bet or a bluff" bet. the flush draw got there, and you're behind Ax. so unless you think this is an elaborate delayed bluff with KQ or a bad bet from 88, I'd fold. i think you'll see 22, A2, or a flush most often.

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Villain could have a lot of things when he calls the flop. From his perspective, hero could have anything when he bets, including 2x or just a "someone's got it or they don't" stab with air, since he gor a free pass in the BB. He could peel one off with a middle pp and see what develops, or even some far more dubious hands (or at least call and see what develops on the flop). On the river, this bet could be a lot of things, from an ill conceived value bet, a flush, bigger trips, or a complete whiff (a lot of players feel compelled to bet when it is checked to them twice, and lot feel compelled to just check it down).

I would want a read here, some stats, but if it is the first time I have seen the palyer, and in round one we haven't seen much of him yet, I think the call is probably marginally profitable in the 55's. I think folding if the bet comes on the turn, which was his plan, is definitely right. Reads make this decision a lot easier, but my default read is "If I haven't seen you before you are probably not that good." (I quickly amend this as the STT plays out, though. After 15 or so hands I start looking at numbers if I haven't noticed anything egregious, though I temper that if the numbers are on the lag side, since it is easier to get a little rush of cards and look like a lag than it is for a lag to check and fold for 15 hands. Obviously, I have more than lag/not lag profiles, but you get the idea).

[schwza]

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Villain could have a lot of things when he calls the flop

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hero bet in a 5-way pot, and villain called utg with 2 people left to act and the SB still live. i highly doubt that villain’s calling here with K-high planning on taking the pot off the hero later.

i think the flop leaves villain with a monster, Ax, a flush draw, or a PP. the only real question is whether the villain will bet the river with a PP. i think that with no reason to believe otherwise, it’s best to assume that he’s smart enough to check behind and take his showdown (do you at least agree that a bet there from a PP would be dumb?)

even if we assume that he will often bet with 88 (or whatever), there are still an awful lot of hands that we’re behind, so a call is only marginally profitable at best. if i were utg, i could beat A6 100% i bet there.

[pineapple888]

Tricky hand, there are many possible lines.

Bet about 120 on the flop, I think half the pot is not strong enough here.

Consider betting the turn, you might drive out an A or a 2 who thinks you got there with the flush, and of course would drive out the random PPs. I'm not sure about this idea, though, I'd have to decide at the table.

Given your line, I check/fold the river. There just aren't enough hands you beat. It's a potential blocking bet situation, but it just doesn't feel right to me here. Villain would need brass balls to bluff this board.