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  #91  
Old 04-15-2005, 07:19 PM
Nate tha' Great Nate tha' Great is offline
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Default Re: Marginal Hand #4 Playing a passive table

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Somebody asked me to weigh in here; I haven't read any of the other responses.

The table conditions are right for an early limp, especially with the presence of the poster, who further helps protect you from the unlikely event of an isolation raise, and adds some dead money to the pot. Also, it doesn't sound like your opponents are going to play very well after the flop.

That having been said, I think this hand is just a little bit too weak here, and folding is the correct play by a small margin, probably on the order of 0.03-0.05 BB. However, I would have no problem with playing J9s here.

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So... Entity had to bring in reinforcements this time, eh? I must be scrambling his noodle a little bit.

Seriously though, thanks for stopping by Nate. So J8s becomes playable a little farther down the table? Even considering the weak/passive nature of this table it's not playable here? Does that 0.03 EV for folding take into consideration the texture of the table or is it for an average table?

John

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The number's a guess based on some simulation work I've done. One thing to keep in mind is that the rake is relatively high at this limit (though much less burdensome than at a B&M). If somehow you were playing say 5/10, but the opponents were of a .50c/$1 skill level, there's an argumemt that it would be a call.
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  #92  
Old 04-15-2005, 07:29 PM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Default Re: Marginal Hand #4 Playing a passive table

I would not play this one preflop. Seems pretty obvious to me that you did, and while it doesn't figure to be a very costly mistake, I would just throw it in and save yourself from the postflop headaches when you catch a marginal flop. These headaches are good when the hand is +EV (like J9s), but losing money and getting a headache isn't a fun combo. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Brad
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  #93  
Old 04-15-2005, 10:59 PM
tor tor is offline
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Default Re: Marginal Hand #4 Playing a passive table (TURN)

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There's 6 BB in the pot,

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This is irrelevant. It's +EV to call, -EV to bet.

Rob

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We are talking about at the beginning of the turn right? I only ask 'cause you say "call" when I see the options of check/bet/fold.

If we are talking about his action after the SB check, I have to be missing something huge here.

I agree there's no fold equity here.

Are you saying that after discounting the 15 straight/flush outs (I don't think a jack is worth anything here) I'm getting odds worse than 6:1?

Or are you saying I'm misapplying the concept of the value bet? I thought anytime the pot/implied odds were clearly laying better than your drawing odds you can go ahead and bet, so that if you hit your hand, you have more money for the win.

Please clear this up for me, and thanks already for your responses.

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On the average, you'll have a 14 outer here, which is 2.2:1 to hit by the river. You need 2.2 callers to break even on a bet (to break even here, you'll need 2.2 bets for every 1 bet you put in). Since that is impossible, and you won't fold both players with a bet here, you should check. Hope for a free card, but if it doesn't come, that's fine.

Rob

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Ahhhh, I get it. Thanks for clearing that up.
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