Interesting Hand: Flopped Set

weevil · #1 01-13-2005, 06:47 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter

Hero (t2620)
UTG (t1446)
UTG+1 (t2425)
UTG+2 (t205)
MP1 (t1975)
MP2 (t1149)
MP3 (t3655)
CO (t628)
Button (t3040)
SB (t1860)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t50, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to t175, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t125, UTG+1 calls t125.

Flop: (t550) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: (t550) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t300, UTG+1 calls t300, MP1 calls t300.

River: (t1450) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t450, UTG+1 raises to t900, MP1 raises to t1500 (All-In), Hero calls t1050, UTG+1 calls t600.

Final Pot: t5950

The call preflop is easy. I check on the flop because I'm either way ahead or way behind to a higher set, so I want to see how they react, and to sandbag a bit. Right now I have one of them on at least KQ, maybe one of them with a high pocket pair. Both players are fairly tight and passive, though they've shown signs of aggression. Neither comes into a pot with a raise without good starters, fairly predictable, but not that solid postflop.

Them checking the flop tells me they each could have a piece of it but most likely not a set. So I come out with a 2/3 pot bet on the turn representing a possible steal the way I've been playing, most likely they'd put me on AQ/AJ. I'm hoping they play back at me now, but they just call. What do I put them on now? If one of them had a strong hand on the flop I would have expected him to come back over the top. The fact that the pot is three handed with a big preflop raise makes me think that the other two players have good but not overly strong hands because of their caution, and they just don't believe me, now probably putting me on KJ/K10 if I have something, otherwise a high ace; both of which they can beat. So again more likely that one of them has AK and the other KQ, with the outside possibility of a high pocket pair.

The river scares the crap out of me. If someone had a possible pair of queens they've got me beat now, and JT completes the straight. This round of betting also worried me, though I thought it represented KQ from UTG+1. I didn't know what to make of MP1 reraising all in. I think AK is the most likely hand for him to play this way given the large preflop raise, but from what I've seen, this could be the set of queens or a slowplayed set of kings. Again, UTG+1 limped to begin with, so I can't absolutely rule out J/10, though calling that big of a raise and sticking around on the turn for the inside seems unlikely, ALTHOUGH the 7 on the turn gives J/10 a double bellybuster draw with the 8 or the queen. Thinking back on this now I see that it is more likely than I thought that UTG+1 might have this holding, because he got the free card for the seven and his implied odds for the straight were very much there so long as MP1 didn't come over the top.

I'm pretty sure I have to make the call, because the chances of running up against another set are something like 1/1000, but in two previous tournaments that day I had run into higher sets and busted out, so I was very worried. How likely is it that you'll run into a set of queens or kings here given the action and the players, and is J/10 even an outside possibility given my descriptions? Does this call pretty much have to be made, or can I save myself my last 800 or so chips? How was my line on all streets given the possible range of my opponents holdings? Is checking the flop a good idea? Given the 7 on the turn could I have made it not worth the draw for J/10 and exposed a set of kings and pushed out pocket queens? Or am I looking for monsters here? Thanks, hope you find this hand as interesting as I do.

Weevil

weevil · #2 01-14-2005, 01:06 AM

Guess no one else found this hand interesting. Anyways. UTG+1 had KQ for two pair on the river, and MP1 had pocket aces. As far as I can tell, he played it fine. He limped in with it from EP, and would doubtless be more careful of his hand if someone raised him. But his call PF wasn't that bad. His implied odds were there for hitting a huge flop, just like mine. The check on the flop is questionable, I would probably have bet it were I him. When I bet on the flop, he's probably putting me on the steal and hoping not to scare me away. But the MP1s overcall should have scared him. Thus the queen on the river couldn't have reassured him too much when I bet into that again on the river. It's very unlikely I'm bluffing again here and he has MP1 to worry about. He's probably facing AK and possibly a set of kings or queens. I would've bailed.

The MP1 played this rather fishy. He should have raised more PF, as he was giving both of us good implied odds to hit a flop. The check on the flop only exacerbated this, giving us a free card with him in last position. He might have put MP1 on kq or ak, and me on the steal. But when I bet again on the river and MP1 raises with the queen, he knows his aces are no good. Like I said, neither of these guys were particularly good PF and it cost them [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I ended up making the final table in the nightly 30/3 but went out in 10th after making a very stupid bluff against a calling station (should have waited till I got that read on him).

Che · #3 01-14-2005, 01:28 AM

weevil-

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 had pocket aces. As far as I can tell, he played it fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Calling to see a three-way flop with AA is borderline IMHO, but the flop check is just bad. He needs to bet this so that he can get KQ pot-commited before the board gets too scary for KQ to come along.

I would play your set the same way (bet out so that anyone with TP/overpair will get commited quickly) except that I would be unafraid of a raise with a set while AA has to worry that his PF trap call actually ended up being a trap for him. However, given AA's short stack, I think the trap is OK. On deeper money, I would dislike it much more.

I think you were very fortunate to get the money all-in after the flop check, but you have to call the river all-ins every time. No way I would ever fold any set on this board for the amounts in question.

Later,
Che

weevil · #4 01-14-2005, 01:56 AM

Um. I was referring to UTG+1 playing fine (up until the river). Changed it now, sorry.

schwza · #5 01-14-2005, 12:07 PM

i think checking the flop is fine. there's a good chance that the PFR will throw out a bet with AQ/QQ/JJ or some kind of missed hand but will fold if you bet. and if he has AK/KQ/AA, the stacks are too shallow for him to get away from his hand whether you lead out or check-raise.

turn and river are fine. there is no way you should fold anywhere here, and you shouldn't have even really thought about it. the Q is a relatively harmless card. i would be more worried about a T or 5 (that would give an 8 a straight).

btw, limp-calling with KQ is horrible.

thorin · #6 01-14-2005, 12:36 PM

I don't like your postflop-play here, i don't see why you should slowplay a set here in a raised threeway-pot. It's not impossible that someone's on a draw, and it seems stupid to give them free cards.

You played the rest good, but really that means nothing in this case [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] (sorry), beause a postflop-bet would've changed the turnplay so much.

Che · #7 01-14-2005, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was referring to UTG+1 playing fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. I got confused about which opponent had which hand and exactly which opponent you were referring to. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Sorry!

Che