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#1
12-03-2005, 03:44 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player. [/ QUOTE ] Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] 
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#2
12-03-2005, 04:30 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player. [/ QUOTE ] Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I completely agree with this line of thinking as you are also "buying" position instead of waiting to be OOP. Without any reads, you get to check or even raise "any 2" in position. Semi-bluffing is delicious here [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#4
12-03-2005, 11:30 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player. [/ QUOTE ] Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Run the math for me, if you would. Here is my basis for thinking this way, incorporating my averages. Assume 20% VP$P, and 30% from SB and 4BB/100 @ 0.50/1. That puts you seeing 27% of the flops at a cost of about 30SB/100 with raises. Your average cost is $0.30 per hand. Average winrate is then a total of 38SB/100 or $0.38 per hand. Folloing the same line for the remaining 6 hands, you will play about ~1.8 additional hands in the first round. That is 2.8SB for those hands, or $0.40 per hand. Granted it may be insignificant overall, considering that you may play a couple hundred hands at the table before leaving. I think more importantly, you also give up the advantage of watching the play at the table without distraction for a few minutes.
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#5
12-03-2005, 03:10 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
[ QUOTE ]
Fold this preflop: you shouldn't be playing weak suited aces from this position. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would probably fold that hand pre-flop unless it was a LPP type of table. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would fold preflop. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Some thoughts on the first two cards: First, limping with small pocket pairs and A2s is fine in most micro limit games in any position. [/ QUOTE ] --Gregatron >>> Here [ QUOTE ] I might make the charts a little differently today if I were doing them over. [/ QUOTE ] --Ed Miller >>> Here [ QUOTE ] I own chart players! [/ QUOTE ] --Anonymous B&M Player [ QUOTE ] In general, do not spend too much time contemplating specific preflop plays...... Instead, use that time to improve your postflop play. After you learn to play decently preflop, most of your additional winnings will come from exploiting your opponents' postflop mistakes. [/ QUOTE ]--Ed Miller, et al. <u>Small Stakes Hold'em</u> p. 77 Anyone want to hear a long-winded (probably incorrect) technical discussion of why I generally fold KQ off but call with A9 through A7 suited in early position?? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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#6
12-03-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
@ Milagro, Pokerstars is not as loose as Party is. This is not such a loose game as the list that ED Miller would be talking about. Limping with A7s UTG in a 10 man game on a significantly tight / stronger game than party is incorrect.
I would however tell you that bet / calling is a far better line. A) MP1 is more likely to call your bet. B) Bet / Calling will build a bigger pot, it also allows you bet out a flush and perhaps getting a call / overcall again due to the potsize. Check / Calling also has its merits as sometimes (not often) it may get checked through and you have infinite odds to hit your flush.
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#7
12-03-2005, 03:46 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
[ QUOTE ]
@ Milagro, Pokerstars is not as loose as Party is. This is not such a loose game as the list that ED Miller would be talking about. Limping with A7s UTG in a 10 man game on a significantly tight / stronger game than party is incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] Party isn't as loose as the loose chart wants. Further, I think you're severely over-estimating the skill of the 'Stars 1/2 player. Doesn't matter, though. A7s is right on the bubble, and whether you think it'll be raised immediately after you preflop is more important than the number of players you think you're going to get. Preflop is ghey, anywah.
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#8
12-03-2005, 08:15 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
With a flush-draw, you need two callers for a bet to be +EV. Even then, it's only very slightly +EV (1.9:1 to hit the flush by the river) so any play where there's a good chance someone will fold is -EV.
If you check-raise, there's a good chance that MP1 will fold, leaving you with one-caller. That's definitely -EV since you'd be paying 2 bets at 1:1 and you need to be getting 2:1. If you bet out, there's some chance MP1 will call and then MP3 raises. That's your best case, and it's only slightly +EV. There's also a chance MP1 will fold and MP3 will call, which is -EV, and there's a chance MP1 will fold and MP3 will raise, which is very -EV. I'd check-call. This also makes it easier for you to check-raise later if you do hit your hand.
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#9
12-03-2005, 09:00 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
Using this logic getting them both to fold would bet terrible.
If they both call, you're +EV with the flush draw. If one folds, you've likely bought outs to your A possible even the 7 if you fold out 88 TT Q9 etc It's a raised pot, driving a player out is not -EV. BET!
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#10
12-03-2005, 09:49 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
I think a CR is a definite option here. If MP3 is a position aware player, his range of raising hands is much larger particularly after two limpers.
You have at least 9 outs to the nuts, and possible pair outs as well. The pot is large, and folding MP1 may allow you to take it down on the turn (in addition to buying outs to your 7) if MP3 peels and folds the turn UI. If not, you're putting in one big bet on the turn regardless due to your nut draw. If MP1 cold-calls with a weak K or other draw, you still retain a small equity edge in the 3-way pot. The argument against the CR is that you may end up putting in three bets on the flop HU against the PFR.
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