Odds of a major downswing?

PartySNGer · #1 12-19-2005, 08:08 PM

I've tracked every $55 SNG since Party started allowing 10 tables, whether I was drunk, on tilt, whatever. Since then I've played 1540 $55s with a ROI of 14.5% (including a recent downswing). In October and November, my worst 300 SNG stretch was winning $1300. Over my last 299 SNGs I have lost $582.

OK, I've seen posts where Irieguy says even the best players will lose over 100-150 SNGs. I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch. I'm not even overly pissed, just wondering how big a statistical anomaly this is. I imagine there's less than a 1% of this occurring. Hopefully, Irie or someone will know more.

valenzuela · #2 12-19-2005, 08:11 PM

1%, lol. All i know is ure guess is kinda low.

splashpot · #3 12-19-2005, 08:11 PM

Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

bluefeet · #4 12-19-2005, 08:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROISimulator Hosted

Original Thread

valenzuela · #5 12-19-2005, 08:27 PM

cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

bluefeet · #6 12-19-2005, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the fine work of "rvg72" of course...

I host a couple sites for my kids sports/school. I had one not in use and had visions of creating a blog of some sorts...just haven't gotten around to it yet.

PartySNGer · #7 12-19-2005, 08:40 PM

Results:

For a 15% ROI player, there's a 96.2% chance that you will be breakeven or better over 300 SNGs.

As for my question, there's about a 1.2% chance of that drop occurring over 300 SNGs.

Mr_J · #8 12-19-2005, 08:56 PM

I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.

pergesu · #9 12-19-2005, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause he's a [censored] OG double OG ya heard?

rvg72 · #10 12-19-2005, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROISimulator Hosted

Original Thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for mentioning the app - glad it is getting some use.

rvg