$22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[pooh74]

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

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Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

[ZeroPointMachine]

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

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Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

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I push this without thinking.

Now I'm thinking.

Pushing barely EV+ to neutral at best. However, I think this is a situation where the equity of folding is kind of overstated. This is like those UTG hands that look like a fold until you turn the blind equity modeling on and they become huge pushes. I think your current situation justifies reducing the equity of a fold here and makes this a clear push.

[11t]

Okay, ICM takes into account many things. One thing it does not take into account is multiway pots.

By pushing here you are giving yourself the best chance to get HU and race. You have probably little to no fold equity. I would rather take this race HU than get 33 next hand and race 3 other stacks and bust.

ICM counts for a lot, but not everything. There is a reason why there is a range of -EV to +EV decisions where SNGPT indicates marginal decisions. In such places there are other factors that should weigh heavily in your decision. This is one of those cases.

I push here, this is probably the most +EV spot you are going to get. J8os is a decent hand and the BB is very likely to call with like 95% of his hands and fold 72os.

I think the key idea here is the likelyhood of the SB folding which I think is decently high.

[microbet]

SNGPT doesn't allow for multiple callers, but ICM does, or at least it doesn't stop you. It just makes the calcs more complicated. Some new poster that is interested in learning how to do these types of calcs should make a new thread and do this.

[GtrHtr]

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fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

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See what you started? NoOb Troll.

It's a fairly +EV push btw, which all but a few posters acknowledge, assuming the broader ranges you'd put BB on.

I think the problem comes when SB and BB "team up" and both call and check it down.

[microbet]

I don't think it's an obvious push and if I were home I'd play around with SNGPT before responding, but it looks like time to thank UTG for not min-raising, thank CO for not pushing, then push and pray.

[downtown]

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After losing the last hand I was left with a seriously short stack. Wait and pray or push? If push, push any 2 from position or is there a limit to your push hands?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero t330 (All-in)</font>

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Hey everyone, I think there's a valuable lesson in here somewhere and it's a situation I've been thinking about for a while. I think those who are worried about being called by BB and SB are right on target. But I am also inclined to push here... wow, it's a situation that is hard, but comes up often. What to do? I don't know. I had been working on making this post for a while, so now's as good a time as any to post it. I think it's debatable, just interested in hearing all sides. Trolls, you are not welcome in the other thread!!!

[HesseJam]

So, I 've read allmost all posts and I think pushing is best here. Three reasons:

1) J8o with two possible callers is good enough outright to justify risking the little equity that you have left.
2) Winning this push will not win you the tourney nor will it relieve much of the pressure. You will have to go all-in again pretty soon anyway. It is better to win the next one with more than 330 chips. This will get you some place.
3) In that spot, you do not so much play your cards but the situation. The situation here is one of the better ones. IMO, the optimum situation would be to call behind a big stack's all-in (he should have a lot of FE) to get HU with him with a chance to triple up. The current chip distribution will make this very unlikely however. You are sitting in front of the bigger stacks. Moreover, during the next hands everybody will have to push through the big stack, so they will tighten up and you will not enter HU with the big stack with a lot of dead money included.

So the plan should be to push here, win the HU and push at the next opportunity, preferably against the big stack in SB and BB, and win this one too. Then you could suddenly be looking at 1300 chips and chalk up another ITM.

To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[pooh74]

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To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

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I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.