How can I avoid these 50/50 chances?

[Martin Aigner]

I consider myself a quite OK SnG-player. I play Party / Empire only, buy ins 100/200. I´ve made about 25k in 2003 (not only in SnG, but a big portion came from it). I´ve built my online bankroll all the way from 10 buy in over 30, 50, 100 to the 200 buy in. Therefor I can´t complain, but there seems to be one major leak in my game plan. It seems I´m in way too many 50/50 hands.

My gameplan is the way most of us play. Pretty tight in the early rounds, but highly agressive on later rounds. The problem at these levels (buy ins) is that the blinds are regulary 200/400 when it gets down to 4/5 players. Now with an average stack of 2000 (when 5 players) one has to play highly agressive to make some money. Of course most of the other players know this too, and therefore it´s often a crapshoot, which leads to lots of 50/50 confrontations. Now I trust the PP / EP software, but I´ve always had the impression that I lose way more of these 50/50 than should be. So I started counting and saw that out of the last 250 confrontations I lost 194. Again, this is no Party conspirancy post, and no bad beat post neither. But simply out of psychological reasons I´d like to avoid these situations. It´s kinda frustrating when you lose them that often. Anyone has any suggestions to avoid them?

Actually my own conclusion out of this dilemma was to step down and play some of these 50 buy in 2 table tourneys at Party. One has way more time there and therefore it´s not that kind of crapshoot. I do like them a lot, but would prefer them to have higher buy ins, too. If so, I wouldn´t play any more 1 table SnGs, but right now I still think that my winnings at the higher buy in SnG are higher.

Any suggestions from you how to avoid these 50/50 troubles? Maybe I´m too long too tight, or too agressive in later rounds, and therefore get too often called by hands like 44?

What I forgot to say: I usually don´t call with medium / small pairs, but much rather make these calls with AK or AQ, since I expect the other players to raise with hands like A7 or JT and therefore want to avoid trouble with my 55. Mistake???

Thanks for any sugestions

Martin Aigner

[chill888]

The nature of the blind increases often make it difficult to avoid late game 50 / 50s. It's one of the reasons the truly GREAT players don't cash in 100% or even 75% of tourneys. And the fact that bad players sometimes get lucky keeps the games profitable. What other sport would people happily bet their cash against top class professionals (I wouldn't play golf against Tiger for money but I'm an ok golfer).

Step one: live with it - it's part of the game.

Step two: As you know, it's usually better to be the
bettor than the caller. Sometimes even with a good hand it's good just to let a raise pass. For example if you are on the bubble - or the game is super tight and stealing has been easy. Or the blinds are about to increase and you'll be button next hand.

Especially against players I know, I focus a lot on understanding how much i need to bet to get them to fold (if i can steal with a minimum bet, I can also fold it if reraised), and how often they will come over the top -- and whether I should respect their raises / bets. And whether they respect my raises / bets.

My goal is to avoid as much as possible heads up confrontations unless i have a great hand. Knowing opponents helps a great deal.


Separately, I think you are right to be very careful with small pairs. They are the most overrated hands in NL (along with AJ). At BEST you are a 50 / 50, but often you are a huge dog if u run into a higher pair. Even 73o is almost 50 / 50 with 22.

Good luck

[Hood]

What you deam as a "50/50"? On 2+2, this is usually applied to pocket pair vs. 2 overcards (which is actually anywhere from 50/50 to 56/44). But what you're discussing it seems it your bubble play, where it becomes a "crapshoot" with lots of people pushing and getting called. Most of the time when there's all-ins on the bubble, the situations are not 50/50 - often 60/40s (like A7 against KQ) and 70/30s (AK vs AQ). [Large generalisations on the odds here but you get the idea]. What I'm getting at is - perhaps what you're looking at aren't actually 50/50s, but you're attributing it to that.

If you are exclusively talking about getting called with lower pocket-pairs - then perhaps you need to adjust to your players willingness to play their lower PPs so strongly. When you push make sure you've got two big cards so it really is a 50/50 when you get called, start calling with middle pocket-pairs, push with all mid PPs, don't push from UTG without a PP?

[Martin Aigner]

Correct, I´m talking about pocket pair against 2 overcards. You´re obviously correct that the odds aren´t exactly 50:50, but close to. BTW, your 56:44 aren´t correct neither. It all depends on the suits and how all the cards connect to each other, e.g. 9c8c against 2s 2d is a 52.56 favourite to win the hand. Anyway, that was not the point my the post.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are exclusively talking about getting called with lower pocket-pairs - then perhaps you need to adjust to your players willingness to play their lower PPs so strongly. When you push make sure you've got two big cards so it really is a 50/50 when you get called, start calling with middle pocket-pairs, push with all mid PPs, don't push from UTG without a PP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you please explain what you meat with that phrase? I mean, with binds that high you have to go all in 1 time out of 4 hands in average for not being blinded away. This means that you have to go all in with virtually anything in some situations, hoping that nobody finds anything.

Your statemend about calling with medium pairs might be correct though. Most of the time I do have a 50/50 or would be way ahead (e.g. against something like A3), but since I think that I´m better off by raising with any 2 than by calling just to have a 50/50 I usually try to avoid these situations. Probably a psychological problem, too, since I really doubt to win any of these confrontations.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[Martin Aigner]

Chill,

thynk you for your answer. I definitly try to be the bettor, that´s for sure.

Just to make it clear: I didn´t mean to whine in my original post. I know that in the last time I lost more often than not in these 50/50 confrontations, but this will change enventually. I´m simply looking for a way which could help me avoid these confrontations. Maybe there is no way to do so, but still I´d like to know.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]

Could you please explain what you meat with that phrase? I mean, with binds that high you have to go all in 1 time out of 4 hands in average for not being blinded away. This means that you have to go all in with virtually anything in some situations, hoping that nobody finds anything.

Your statemend about calling with medium pairs might be correct though. Most of the time I do have a 50/50 or would be way ahead (e.g. against something like A3), but since I think that I´m better off by raising with any 2 than by calling just to have a 50/50 I usually try to avoid these situations. Probably a psychological problem, too, since I really doubt to win any of these confrontations.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[/ QUOTE ]

The final paragraph was somewhat flippant because I didn't really think you were talking specifically about a 50/50 situations. These seems rather specific in regards to the general question of 'I find myself short-stacked and are forced to go all-in with non-premium hands and find I get called to much'. I'm actually still not clear why - until the second to last line ("Maybe I´m too long too tight, or too agressive in later rounds, and therefore get too often called by hands like 44?"), your post seemed much more about aggressiveness on the bubble.

But anywhos, to the situation. What you're saying is you find that your opponents are too willing to call with any pocket pair. This is about 50/50 which you want to avoid. Also, this is occurring very frequently on the bubble (you pushing and finding you are up against a low PP). So I'll go over some of the things I said in this context:

"When you push make sure you've got two big cards so it really is a 50/50 when you get called"

Basically, you don't want to push with say A2-A8. Perhaps this is where the leak is, because obviously getting called here with a low to mid PP is disasterous because there's a good chance that you only have one overcard (making it more 70/30). If you find you generally get called with PPs, much better to push with the likes of TJ upwards, as then at least you really will have 2 overcards if you get called.

"start calling with middle pocket-pairs"

If you opponents are also pushing, as well as calling, with low PPs, then I'd say this greatly increases the value of calling with mid PPs.

"push with all mid PPs"

for the same reasons as above, PPs go up in value. Getting called by a low PP is a brilliant situation for you, so take advantage and make sure you get all your money in with 77 upwards.

"don't push from UTG without a PP"

Pushing from UTG is now a definate no-no without a PP. I'd say hands like AT-AQ, which you may usually push with from UTG, you now shouldn't due to the increased likelyhood of getting called. So only push UTG with PPs that you don't mind getting called with.


Ok, now back to what you originally wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, with binds that high you have to go all in 1 time out of 4 hands in average for not being blinded away. This means that you have to go all in with virtually anything in some situations, hoping that nobody finds anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

See I think this is now a more general question, not relating to the specifics of the 50/50 thing - hence my slight confusion.

[ilya]

Liquor.

[chill888]

Hi Martin,

No, I know you were NOT whining. Sorry if I implied this. I just meant you have to live it as part of the game,

Regards,

[rybones]

I won't pretend to give you any advice. it sound like you have done well all on your own. Actually I am wonder if you or anyone else has any thoughts on using sngs as a way to build my bankroll and test my skills? it sound like that it what you did by consistantly moving up levels?

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing from UTG is now a definate no-no without a PP. I'd say hands like AT-AQ, which you may usually push with from UTG, you now shouldn't due to the increased likelyhood of getting called. So only push UTG with PPs that you don't mind getting called with.


[/ QUOTE ]

I believe Martin is talking about 4 or 5 left with large blinds. If so, you have to push hands like AQ - AT. Otherwise, he'll be blinding away to 4th every game.