Set hand - spewing or solid?

spacemonkey57 · #1 05-24-2005, 08:42 PM

All I have on UTG is 40 hands, but he's 21/5/.60. Should I have called the first river bet? I was figuring him for two pair, but I guess the turn checkraise is the standard party poker set line. Thanks.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

shadow29 · #2 05-24-2005, 08:45 PM

I think that just calling the river 3-bet is reasonable.

Shillx · #3 05-24-2005, 08:47 PM

Yeah this looks to be spew to me, but I could be wrong. If he is equally likely to have 99 and 44, then doing all this raising is neutral EV-wise. The problem is that he will probably not 3-bet the river with 44. If he will not 3-bet the river with 44, then you should just call there. If he will 3-bet it, then you can raise the river and call a 3-bet. If it is possible that he would call on the flop with 22, then it opens up another can of worms, but in general you need to have the best hand about 60-67% of the time that you raise in a HU situation were the villian can reraise back. In this case, the villian is not going to fold so you need to have the best hand 67% of the time to make it correct. According to Bayes, you will only have the best of it 50% of the time so it really doesn't do you any good to go nuts.

Brad

oreogod · #4 05-24-2005, 08:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah this looks to be spew to me, but I could be wrong. If he is equally likely to have 99 and 44, then doing all this raising is neutral EV-wise. The problem is that he will probably not 3-bet the river with 44. If he will not 3-bet the river with 44, then you should just call there. If he will 3-bet it, then you can raise the river and call a 3-bet. If it is possible that he would call on the flop with 22, then it opens up another can of worms, but in general you need to have the best hand about 60-67% of the time that you raise in a HU situation were the villian can reraise back. In this case, the villian is not going to fold so you need to have the best hand 67% of the time to make it correct. According to Bayes, you will only have the best of it 50% of the time so it really doesn't do you any good to go nuts.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Which 2+2 book was it that talks about this? Was it TOP, its been awhile since I read that.

istewart · #5 05-24-2005, 08:57 PM

Yes, Theory of Poker.

Probably Heads-Up On the End, but not 100% sure.