The evolution of the mid-high stakes forum

[elindauer]

Ok, boys. This is the mid-high forum. It's time for us to take the next step in poker analysis.

You may have noticed that SO many threads talk about points that are very close in EV. Most threads, and all good threads, have heated arguments back and forth. It's a call. It's a fold. It's a raise. Frequently, nobody convinces anybody, and everybody has a good argument for their position. Fold, because he'll never check-raise with a weaker hand. Call, because if you fold he can run you over. You get the idea.

Well, the reason for much of the debate is that there's a fourth option we're ignoring: none of the above.


What do I mean? What is this fourth option? The fourth option is a probability triple, which indicates that you should take each of the three possible actions some percentage of the time. I suggest we write these triples this way:

{fold, call, raise}


Up to now, this forum has allowed only three options:

Fold: {100, 0, 0}
Call: {0, 100, 0}
Raise: {0, 0, 100}


When the answer to the OP is some triple like {15, 80, 5}, as it so often is, then we end up yelling at each other about how clearly our answer is right and the other guy's answer is wrong, and how if you think that, let's play heads up some time, fish.


Here's an example. You raise KQ and are called by the big blind, who is a good player. You flop top pair and bet all the way, and only to sadly get check-raised on the river. What should you do?

Well, this answer is almost always going to invlove a probability triple. Any answer of always folding, calling, or raising represents an exploitable strategy. Some are more exploitable than others, but all of them miss the mark of the perfect strategy.


We're playing mid and high stakes poker, so it is inevitable that we are going to have to deal with good players. Even against bad players, situations where triples are important arise all the time. Even a bad player is capable of noticing that you have been folding to river raises a lot, right?



So, from now on, please consider answers in the form

{fold, call, raise}

to be valid. These will be most common when the hand involves an opponent who is tricky, so he doesn't play exactly the same way every time with the same hand, and is capable of some adjustments to our play. Hopefully, we can start dialing in some of these triples for common situations, and talk about simple ways to make the random selection at home.


good luck.
Eric