AKo -- how ridiculous is this?

[meep_42]

Betting this flop is a mistake. No pair is folding, no pp is folding (They all have a reason to continue here), so a bet has to be strictly for value, and your hand isn't terribly strong here.

The turn call is ok getting 9:1 with between 1 and 6 outs (more like 4-5 most of the time, i'd imagine).

I'd raise the river as UTG+2 hasn't shown any reason for us to believe he has A-high here. If he has KQ, he'll probably call anyway, if he has AJ/AQ, he's not going to overcall very often. Raising here gets us 2 bets a bunch of the time, calling gets us 1 bet most of the time. The times when it gets us more are few and far between when villain holds exactly KQ/KJ and raises. (AK raising nets us .5-1BB, minus any additional rake taken on the action, while AK isn't likely to 3-bet)

-d

[gh9801]

Not too sure about the river, what range of hands is main villain c/ring with?

[imported_anacardo]

Betting the flop can get us a free card on the turn a relatively high percentage of the time here, I think, and if a check-raise is in the offing we can fold the turn UI or even fold to the checkraise with few worries. There are good reasons to bet here beyond simple equity edge.

I have a great deal of trouble understanding your river analysis. I think this an interesting, sophisticated play, but I don't see any reason to suspect that your parlay of UTG checkraising with hand that can't beat TPTK + MP2 might call two with worse hand + MP2 might fold a better hand is any good, compared to closing the action and going for the overcall. Given OP's ignorance re: his opponents, I prefer the ABC play.

[meep_42]

ABC being call?

(Re: flop, whenever I bet these, I get donked on the turn, I don't think you get a free river as much as people think you do.)

On the river, I see it as this -
a. UTG+2 probably has air, but may have AK or KQ -- but he is very unlikely to have a had that beats Hero's.
b. If he has air, he's not calling 1 bet or 2.
c. He is unlikely to 3-bet a raise.

So, if we call, we get the MP's bet on the river MOST of the time, and an additional bet from UTG+2's KQ some of the time. We only get more if UTG+2 has KQ and raises. (Hero nets less than a bet when UTG raises AK for the chop)

If we raise, we get >1 bet from MP2 as he'll be closing the action if UTG calls (so he's more likely to call the 2nd bet). We also get 2 bets from UTG+2 some of the time with KQ. As stated, I think we're unlikely to get 3-bet by UTG+2.

I'm not sure how I can better explain my thoughts.

-d

[BoxLiquid]

I like it. Good value raise.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you explain the initial call on the river? The 3-bet makes perfect sense with some hand reading on UTG+2 (we're almost never behind, and often ahead of KQ/KJ here).

Maybe i'm just overthinking. Is the call simply becuse we're unsure where we stand against MP2, but getting an overcall from UTG+2 seems probable so we take value that way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Going into the river, I felt like my cards might as well be face up. I mean, I guess I could be on some bizarre slowplay or I could have two big cards other than exactly AK, but I thought my hand seemed pretty obvious.

All the same, I wouldn't have been shocked if UTG+2 woke up on the king. But he didn't. Then, after that, I sort of half-expected MP2 to go into check-call mode. But he went ahead and bet.

At the time I was kind of playing on instinct and decided to go for an overcall. It's entirely possible this is bad, but here's a retrospective rationale for it:

(1) It's possible MP2 is folding to a raise. Some players who were committed to showdown would check on the scare card.

(2) If UTG+2 has a worse king, he may curse MP2 for leading into me and fold if I raise (and then UTG+2 will thank MP2 if the hand goes to showdown).

(3) It's really not out of the question for MP2 to have a better hand. People like to cold-call with pocket pairs. He could have intended to slowplay or checkraise on the flop with his set. Or he could have turned a set with 88. (Nevertheless, during the hand, I was figuring my hand was probably best on the river.)

(4) What actually happened could take place. If UTG+2 has a worse king, he may gain confidence and checkraise after I meekly call. I didn't anticipate this happening, but apparently it is a potential consequence of the line I took.

So there's all of that. But Meep makes a good point about how if UTG+2 has KQ he may call two bets cold on the river and with AQ/AJ he's unlikely to call no matter what. I suspect I should have just raised the river at the first opportunity.

Once I just called and UTG+2 checkraised and MP2 folded, though, I thought the 3-bet seemed easy enough. But maybe I'm wrong about that. (I'm not sure how to interpret Evan's post in this thread.)

In any event, it turned out that UTG+2 had K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. So I didn't have to chop with him like I was worried I might. (His checkraise made me think there was a good chance we both had the same hand.)

[ QUOTE ]
Betting this flop is a mistake. No pair is folding, no pp is folding (They all have a reason to continue here), so a bet has to be strictly for value, and your hand isn't terribly strong here.

The turn call is ok getting 9:1 with between 1 and 6 outs (more like 4-5 most of the time, i'd imagine).

I'd raise the river as UTG+2 hasn't shown any reason for us to believe he has A-high here. If he has KQ, he'll probably call anyway, if he has AJ/AQ, he's not going to overcall very often. Raising here gets us 2 bets a bunch of the time, calling gets us 1 bet most of the time. The times when it gets us more are few and far between when villain holds exactly KQ/KJ and raises. (AK raising nets us .5-1BB, minus any additional rake taken on the action, while AK isn't likely to 3-bet)

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't see a problem with betting on the flop just to get a free card on the turn. it's better than calling the turn when the bet doubles and lack of information. by betting the flop this obviously is not a value bet, but in a passive table it would be good because you can check down to see the river. if you get donked on the turn then it looks like someone has hit 2 pair or better and you can release. by betting the flop you get more information. if you're not going to bet the flop, then fold the turn.

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The 3-bet makes perfect sense with some hand reading on UTG+2 (we're almost never behind, and often ahead of KQ/KJ here).

[/ QUOTE ]
Please stop drinking alcoholic hot sauce.

[/ QUOTE ]
#1. I'm not crimson.
#2. Put UTG+2 on a range here, what hands are we behind? He raised pre-flop, but didn't cap. Didn't bet the flop or turn with nothing but small rags on the board. Didn't value raise the turn when he had the field trapped in.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
bet this flop to clean up pair outs

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you talking about? A2/A3/A6 are folding to a bet on this flop?