More Fun With TD 2-7

[MichaelOar]

I raise with 2457, and am cold called, and also called by the blinds. They all draw three, and I take one.

After the 1st draw, I make 24578.

SB and BB check, I bet, all call.

2nd Draw: SB takes 1. BB takes 2. I stand pat. (anyone disagree here?). Cold Caller takes 3?!

Now, the SB leads out, BB calls, I ponder and raise (thoughts here?) and the cold caller stays true to form and cold calls. SB and BB both call the raise.

3rd Draw: SB takes 1, BB stands pat, I stand pat, CC takes 1.

Action: Checked around (Thoughts here too!).

Michael

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise with 2457, and am cold called, and also called by the blinds. They all draw three, and I take one.

After the 1st draw, I make 24578.

SB and BB check, I bet, all call.

2nd Draw: SB takes 1. BB takes 2. I stand pat. (anyone disagree here?). Cold Caller takes 3?!

Now, the SB leads out, BB calls, I ponder and raise (thoughts here?) and the cold caller stays true to form and cold calls. SB and BB both call the raise.

3rd Draw: SB takes 1, BB stands pat, I stand pat, CC takes 1.

Action: Checked around (Thoughts here too!).

Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raise has low utility here; it would be marginal even if the cold-calling bozo would fold. If SB leads out any 1-card draw, then go ahead and raise it up, but if he's normally solid and straightforward I would consider calling and drawing to a 7 if he stood pat. If tricky I'm calling it down. (SB's bet is really strange, maybe he made an 8, "bet for information" and decided to break it--- if so, great! Anything stronger and he should be trying for a check/raise to get more money in the pot and drive out BB.)

Standing with the 8 vs. a player drawing 1, 2, and unknown is trickier. None of them indicated any strength before the first draw, but 875 might be a dog if they're all drawing one the last round.

I don't seem much value in betting the last round. I don't think BB has anything less than an 86 if he has a brain. But, who knows, the player behind you will evidently call with anything.

[dibbs]

Odd hand. Man I love guys like the cold caller, except they always bust up my 1 card draws.


I don't raise here unless I know SB is the type to do that delayed lead thing when he's still at one. I don't think he usually will be though. You probably aren't shaking out the CC and maybe BB either.

What kind of hands does BB stand pat on for heat? If he draws rough and stays pat on rough hands I probably stick with it, if I know he draws nice and plays values I break while groaning about it. Tough one though.

I don't think the river is a value bet. Too likely you'll have to face two bets, I don't mind seeing if I'm good for free.

JMO, however.

[timprov]

Calling, letting him stand pat, and breaking is a serious error. You have to either call and stand pat regardless of what he does, or raise and make the decision based on what happens after.

[dibbs]

Do you favor the raise to the check and rap pat in this spot? Just curious.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you favor the raise to the check and rap pat in this spot? Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the players. I generally will raise, though.

[MichaelOar]

I obviously agree. I thought that three good things could happen because of my raise:

1. The trashy draws behind me will have to pay the max to continue with their trashy hands.

2. I felt there was an outside-outside chance that the bettor would break a better 8.

3. Most importantly, if the bettor had 3-bet me, I was going to break my 8.

Michael

[randomstumbl]

This hand takes me back to .25/.50 on UB. I like the way you played this.

I think betting on the end is fairly marginal, but probably worth it if SB would bet when he hits his hand. If he'd go for the check-raise, it's probably worth just checking through. BB has a 9 and he's going to call your bet on the end. The button probably didn't have a great draw and will call with a lot of hands you beat. There's some value in a bet here.

I'm making a lot of assumptions on how each player plays based on one hand. So, I could be very, very wrong. Specific reads decide your best play on the river.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
I obviously agree. I thought that three good things could happen because of my raise:

1. The trashy draws behind me will have to pay the max to continue with their trashy hands.

2. I felt there was an outside-outside chance that the bettor would break a better 8.

3. Most importantly, if the bettor had 3-bet me, I was going to break my 8.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, I'm willing to be convinced on this one; my initial reaction was wrong. (I've been breaking too often lately vs opponents who think their 9 is good.)

Even if all three players are drawing one (and live) on the last round you have a huge edge (50-70%) and obviously want to get in a raise. This nets you between 1-3 BB.

If you are behind an 86 or better, you could have as little as 12% equity drawing, because some of your outs are most likely dead. Knocking out a low-equity hand like button has will not increase your equity much. But there are already 8 BB in the pot when it gets to you, which is worth making a move for. Compare 1 BB in a 9 BB pot (note that you have odds to draw this way) vs. 2 BB in a 10 BB pot (or 12 if SB sticks around) in the case where you are behind an 86.

Causing a break turns you from a 12% underdog in the first into to a 70% favorite in the second. This difference is worth about 6 BB! So you need only be successful in breaking another hand 1 out of 7 times if these are the only possibilities. (Implied odds from betting on the final round figure in here, too, but I've ignored them.)

Sometimes you will get 3-bet and are probably less than 12% to make your hand, maybe only 8-9% vs. a 76 and another 7 draw. Paying 3 BB in a 12 BB pot here costs you 2BB.

The mix of these cases should be +EV, but I'm having trouble assigning probabilities to each.

What should villian do here with a legitimate hand? I would be tempted to smooth-call with a 76 and bet the last round, but after button cold-calls yet again I think a reraise is called for; the other two players will insulate villian against the possibility of you having a better 7.

Sorry for the length of the reply; I just wanted to work through it myself and get a feel for the numbers here.

[MichaelOar]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand takes me back to .25/.50 on UB. I like the way you played this.


[/ QUOTE ]

The funny part is that this hand was played at 40x that limit. Strange, but true!

Michael