99 - Page 4

B Dids · #31 08-23-2005, 11:57 AM

Nothing about all caps FISH makes me think they're overplaying any flavor of top pair. FWIW I think if they're nuts, they get the all caps LAG or MANIAC. I think it's pretty much JJ>22>J9.

chief444 · #32 08-23-2005, 11:59 AM

I muck this preflop.

Given the read (although small) on MP2 a set of J's seems more likely than anything after the turn cap so I like the river check/call. I think he would likely coldcall 3 preflop with either 22 or JJ and AA is always a possibility but I think he slows down earlier with most anything except the nut hand (prior to river anyway). So, looks good to me.

kurosh · #33 08-23-2005, 12:17 PM

Fold PF unless they're huge maniacs postflop and you can make up (edit:6BBish is wrong apparently. however much you need, it's a lot)

Would he cap JJ PF? It sure as hell looks like that's what he has. Do NOT raise the river. If you're going to do anything, bet and call a raise. I think that's what I'd do.

PTjvs · #34 08-23-2005, 01:15 PM

I'm very surprised by the # of people who advocate slowing down here. With basically the 2nd nuts, Id have to have one hell of a read on the other guy to not raise the river, and default for me is certainly to cap, ESPECIALLY with a 3rd player involved. Are we really up against the absolute nuts that often?

jvs

peterchi · #35 08-23-2005, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm very surprised by the # of people who advocate slowing down here. With basically the 2nd nuts, Id have to have one hell of a read on the other guy to not raise the river, and default for me is certainly to cap, ESPECIALLY with a 3rd player involved. Are we really up against the absolute nuts that often?

jvs

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Against a loose-passive fish, having two streets capped is not going to make me too comfortable. This does in fact mean the nuts a good portion of the time.

I do want at least one bet going in on the river, and two is fine too, but I think any more than that is asking for trouble most of the time.

B Dids · #36 08-23-2005, 02:02 PM

You are assuming that the villians here are worse than they probably are. The hero has 50 hands worth of read, pretend they're unknown 2/4 regs. Too lose pre and post flop, too passive in most spots, and not very subtle with their holdings.

These players don't play hands that are not JJ in this way often enough to go crazy on the river.

PTjvs · #37 08-23-2005, 02:12 PM

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You are assuming that the villians here are worse than they probably are.

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I play 2/4 almost exclusively these days, and I have to say it's nearly impossible to underestimate the average 2/4 player.

jvs

Justin A · #38 08-23-2005, 02:16 PM

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Fold PF unless they're huge maniacs postflop and you can make up (edit:6BBish is wrong apparently. however much you need, it's a lot)

Would he cap JJ PF? It sure as hell looks like that's what he has. Do NOT raise the river. If you're going to do anything, bet and call a raise. I think that's what I'd do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm torn between that line and check/calling. But putting in 3 or 4 bets on this river is spewing.

Justin A · #39 08-23-2005, 02:21 PM

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You are almost always playing for only set outs preflop. Once you have 2nd set, I don't think you can ever assume you are behind top set; if you aren't willing to shove all your chips in with 2nd set, why play 99 for set value in the first place?

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When I flop a set, and no reasonable draws come in, I am capping every. single. street. Especially if I still have 2nd set by the river. If this is a leak, it certainly isn't my biggest one.

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Your reasoning in both of these statements is flawed. This is how bad players think, they only think about the hand they have and don't try to put their opponnents on hands.

PTjvs · #40 08-23-2005, 02:35 PM

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Your reasoning in both of these statements is flawed. This is how bad players think, they only think about the hand they have and don't try to put their opponnents on hands.

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Generally you are putting your opponent on a range of hands. Putting your relatively unknown opponent on the ONE specific two card hand that beats you is weak IMO. I am continually amazed each when each & every day when I see people at these limits cold call AA/KK/QQ & play them like they are Kryptonite postflop, or seemingly rational players go insane with absolutely no hand. I simply don't think you can ever put a random 2/4 player on the one overset to your 2nd set often enough for capping this to ever be -EV, especially 3headed. There are several people I have enough hands on & knowledge of to slow down here, but some random fish with 50 hands isnt on that list.

jvs