99

crunchy1 · #1 08-23-2005, 08:03 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $2.
UTG+1 raises, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO caps, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (21 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (20.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 caps, CO calls $4.50 (All-In), Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (36.62 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 39.62 BB

2 Villians on the river are FISH over small samples (<50 hands); CO (All-In guy) was LAGGISH and I didn't put a lot of stock in his PF cap.

Looking for PF and River comments - I think the flop/turn are pretty straightforward.

peterchi · #2 08-23-2005, 08:18 AM

Pre-flop, looks remarkably similar to this hand. So I'd say the same thing that I did there.

River, I think I'd bet-call. A5 and 56 don't make any sense, so you effectively have the 2nd nuts. Maybe I'd worry more if MP2 is passive enough to specifically put him on JJ... but otherwise, it would suck to have this checked through on the river. I think you're good for 2 bets here if necessary.

Nick Royale · #3 08-23-2005, 09:05 AM

I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.

Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.

sean c · #4 08-23-2005, 09:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.

Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick I am confussed on the making up 26sb part. Hero is getting 5/1 on his pre flop call how does he have to make up 26sb?

Nick Royale · #5 08-23-2005, 10:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.

Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick I am confussed on the making up 26sb part. Hero is getting 5/1 on his pre flop call how does he have to make up 26sb?

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Lets assume UTG calls 50% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 16.5:4. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 16.5:4 isn't the same thing as 4.25:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 16.5:4. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 4 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 4:40. Then substract 16.5 from 40 and you get 23.5. You need to make 23.5SB postflop when you hit your set. 26SB was a pretty quick estimation from my part, and not a very accurate one.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
16.5SB + 4SB = 20.5SB (preflop)
23.5SB + ~8SB = 31.5 (postflop)
Total: 52SB

On 3/6 which I usually play that would equal 156$. I know this is a poor comparision, but the biggest pot I've ever won was 161$, 2nd biggest 146$. I find it hard to assume a average pot on 156$ just because of heavy preflop aggression.

sean c · #6 08-23-2005, 10:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.

Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick I am confussed on the making up 26sb part. Hero is getting 5/1 on his pre flop call how does he have to make up 26sb?

[/ QUOTE ]
Lets assume UTG calls 50% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 16.5:4. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 16.5:4 isn't the same thing as 4.25:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 16.5:4. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 4 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 4:40. Then substract 16.5 from 40 and you get 23.5. You need to make 23.5SB postflop when you hit your set. 26SB was a pretty quick estimation from my part, and not a very accurate one.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
16.5SB + 4SB = 20.5SB (preflop)
23.5SB + ~8SB = 31.5 (postflop)
Total: 52SB

On 3/6 which I usually play that would equal 156$. I know this is a poor comparision, but the biggest pot I've ever won was 161$, 2nd biggest 146$. I find it hard to assume a average pot on 156$ just because of heavy preflop aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am figuring UTG poster and BB are folding and everyone else is calling. Crunchy is in the SB 1/2 bet blind structure. 17.5/3.5 on the call and how did you come up with 10/1? I agree there are times he hits his set and still loses just wanting to know how you came up with this number.

Nick Royale · #7 08-23-2005, 10:32 AM

I missed the poster and somehow forgot about the SB. It should look like this (assuing UTG+1 calls every time):

Lets assume UTG calls 100% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 18.5:3.5. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 18.5:3.5 isn't the same thing as 5.3:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 18.5:3.5. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 3.5 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 3.5:35. Then substract 18.5 from 35 and you get 16.5. You need to make 16.5SB postflop when you hit your set.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
18.5SB + 4SB = 22.5SB (preflop)
16.5SB + ~6SB = 22.5 (postflop)
Total: 45SB

The 1:10 number is a number someone came up with (Sklansky?) that have been accepted for estimating how often a set holds up. Given the previous raise, 3-bet, cap it should probably be a little higher for this hand as the risk of hitting and losing is greater.

Even though I missed some crucial information I think the preflop call is pretty slim, but might be correct.

PTjvs · #8 08-23-2005, 09:27 AM

Fold preflop, cap river.

crunchy1 · #9 08-23-2005, 09:31 AM

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Fold preflop, cap river.

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Why?

PTjvs · #10 08-23-2005, 10:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop, cap river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

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You are almost always playing for only set outs preflop. Once you have 2nd set, I don't think you can ever assume you are behind top set; if you aren't willing to shove all your chips in with 2nd set, why play 99 for set value in the first place?

That you are still 3 headed on the river just makes this even more obvious; you only have to be ahead more than 1/3 to make this profitable. Do you seriously think you are behind here more than a third of the time?

jvs