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Old 10-19-2005, 01:36 PM
jman220 jman220 is offline
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Default Lottery at the +EV Point

The Powerball Lottery is at a record High, I'm wondering if anyone knows if it has reached +EV status to buy a ticket? I know you still need to factor in the chances of a divided jackpot.
Link:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/10/18/pow....ap/index.html
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  #2  
Old 10-19-2005, 01:45 PM
TheNoodleMan TheNoodleMan is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

might be +ev, but varience is a bitch on lotto.
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  #3  
Old 10-19-2005, 01:48 PM
TheHammer24 TheHammer24 is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

I figured this out in the probability forum once. It was like 120 million or so?
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Old 10-19-2005, 01:52 PM
WhiteWolf WhiteWolf is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

[ QUOTE ]
The Powerball Lottery is at a record High, I'm wondering if anyone knows if it has reached +EV status to buy a ticket? I know you still need to factor in the chances of a divided jackpot.
Link:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/10/18/pow....ap/index.html

[/ QUOTE ]

Also factor in that the jackpots are paid out over a several year period. Money you are going to get several years in the future is worth much less than money you have today, making the jackpots worth significantly less than the numbers you see quoted in the headlines.
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  #5  
Old 10-19-2005, 01:52 PM
Jeffage Jeffage is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

It's 180M-1 to hit the powerball jackpot. The jackpot is $340 million. Seems plus EV to me, but my (limited) understanding is the possibility of a split moves it closer to break even. It's even worse if you factor in taxes and the penalty you pay for getting it lump sum (which even the biggest moron on Earth would do).

Jeff
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  #6  
Old 10-19-2005, 01:56 PM
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

[ QUOTE ]
. It's even worse if you factor in taxes and the penalty you pay for getting it lump sum (which even the biggest moron on Earth would do).

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious???
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  #7  
Old 10-19-2005, 02:04 PM
TheMetetron TheMetetron is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. It's even worse if you factor in taxes and the penalty you pay for getting it lump sum (which even the biggest moron on Earth would do).

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious???

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, no way I wouldn't take the lump sum in a lotto.
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  #8  
Old 10-19-2005, 02:22 PM
AA suited AA suited is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

lump sum is BETTER! you will make WAY more in interest over those 25yrs than whatever the amount with annuity. the only reason to take annuity is if you cant control your spending. (50% of lottery winners go bankrupt within 5 yrs.)

See the Probability forum.

btw: $340M (~170M lump sum) is still -EV if you factor in the 40% in taxes (fed/state/city) you pay.
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  #9  
Old 10-19-2005, 02:32 PM
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

Oh sorry by bad, i misread the post. It is definitely much better to take the lump sum.
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  #10  
Old 10-19-2005, 02:34 PM
Recliner Recliner is offline
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Default Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

Yes, you have to be a tard not to take the lump sum. When you take the lump sum the interest payments you recieve are a little less than the payouts you would recieve, but YOU STILL HAVE MILLIONS IN THE BANK. In this case taking the lump sum would work out to be worth tens of millions more than the monthly or whatever payouts.
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