Kerry Wood

mrbaseball · #1 04-08-2005, 01:17 PM

This guy is an overated bum. Puts up good numbers most of the time but when it really matters he disintegrates. Huge temper and for the poker inclined "tilts" very easily. When the game is on the line he performs at his worst. He and his Cubs are fan favorites who always get waaaaay overbet making his opponents lines mighty tasty.

In his last 10 starts his team went 5-5. If you bet one unit on him each of those games you would be down 2.95 units. In his past 10 starts versus Milwaukee his team went 4-6 and betting that same unit per game would have resulted in a return of -7.05 units.

A unit on each of Capuano's last 10 starts you would have went 5-5 for a return of +2.5 units. He only had 4 starts vs the Cubs where his team went 2-2 for a return of 1.25 units.

Cubs and Wood are fairly strong favorites today and should win. I sure as hell wouldn't bet on it though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

JupiterUWG · #2 04-08-2005, 01:32 PM

just for the record, the whole "when the game is on the line, he performs his worst" thing gives me a bad taste...because i sat in the stands and watched him pitch an absolute gem in the deciding game of a playoff series against the braves ON THE ROAD to end their season. This statement could be true i guess, but i wont accept it. haha

mrbaseball · #3 04-08-2005, 01:55 PM

Score 2 to 2 in the seventh he's the last guy in the world you want out there. Besides by the 7th he probably already throws 120 pitches. He does have gem potntial and no hitter kinda stuff. But if the cubbies don't give him a lead he heads south. Last years SI season preview coverboy went 8-9. His best ever year was 14 wins. He is always among the leaders in K's and era but when it comes to notching the W's he is nowhere to be found because when the game is on the line he is out to lunch.

Disclaimer - As a Chicagoan and diehard WhiteSox fan I loathe, despise and detest the Cubs and anything affilated with them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I try my best not to let this cloud any analysis of either Chicago team. In fact I will bet on the Cubs despite my despising them when I feel the price is right. The price is almost always wrong though due to a strong national following and all the lovable loser underdog crap.

Line has moved pretty good since this morning away from Wood to a fairer number. I guess you gotta jump on those bargains when you can [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

the alex · #4 04-08-2005, 07:28 PM

I'm a diehard Cubs fan and I agree with you, mrbaseball.

Vince Young · #5 04-08-2005, 10:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He is always among the leaders in K's and era

[/ QUOTE ]
'nuff said.

mrbaseball · #6 04-09-2005, 05:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
'nuff said

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no it's not. Hence the post. This guy should have a giant "L" tatooed on his forehead. Point is his price is almost always a fade and betting on him is a sure way to go broke.

Vince Young · #7 04-09-2005, 12:59 PM

Your point was that he is an overrated bum. It's the Cubs that are overrated, not Wood. Anyone should be able to realize this from his 3.63 career ERA. Sorry, but I hate when people blame pitchers when they give up 2-3 runs in an outing and lose. Hell, the best pitcher in the league was barely above .500 last year at 16-14, is he a bum too?

mrbaseball · #8 04-09-2005, 02:01 PM

Yesterday Wood got the bases loaded and walked in the tieing run. This is the point I was alluding too and it happens (to him) all the time. When it's cruch time at a pivotal point in the game he does whatever he has to, to screw it up. When other guys dig down deep for whatever they need to do to win Wood almost always loses it in that same situation.

Paluka · #9 04-09-2005, 02:31 PM

Over the last 3 years, Kerry Wood actually has much better numbers with runners in scoring position than he does with the bases empty. With runners in scoring position with 2 outs over the last 3 years, batters are hitting .145 against him with a .199 slugging percentage.

mrbaseball · #10 04-09-2005, 04:15 PM

Like I said the problem isn't with his stats. Except the most important stat, WINS. His numbers almost defy his results. But if you watch him and follow him you will see a pattern. In a close game he crumbles. He will have some spectacular outings this year. But he'll also have plenty like yesterday when he walks in the tieing run in the 6th. Just enough to let the others guys back into it. Bottom line he's a bad bet against the moneyline and to bet with him you always lay way more than you'll ever get back.